{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6fd8ca6d-8b3d-4320-9db1-affef56e0daa", "symbol": "PBTP", "name": "INVESCO 0-5 YR US TIPS ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.156, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.588, "architecture_energy": 36.216, "architecture_maturity": 45.601, "architecture_confidence": 85.252, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.9, "rotation_up": 27.64, "upward_expansion": 22.75, "deceleration": 35.05, "rotation_down": 31.93, "downward_expansion": 59.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.67898, 25.669825, 25.70168, 25.782367 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 25.695, "trend_reference": 25.87186, "distance_from_trend": -0.006836, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.6704, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.041532, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.589662, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.012088, "excess_performance": -0.137713, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006836, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002615, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.041532, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011319, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.115897, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000749, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.012088, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.21509, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 245144, "relative_activity": 1.369186, "balance": 1.21509, "dry_up": 1.63661, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003084, "annualized_volatility": 0.035094, "from_high_reference": -0.02226, "from_low_reference": 0.006463 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.87186, "fair_value_reference": 24.6704, "structural_low": 25.53, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.000828, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.014884, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.008914, "worst_return": -0.004681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.005876, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011856, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.00688, "worst_return": -0.018632, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.011879, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.019156, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.011879, "worst_return": -0.011879, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.695, "volume": 346999, "typical_volume": 151306.65, "trend": 25.894032, "fair_value": 24.614135, "relative_strength": -8.973981, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.364404, "energy": 40.836684, "activity_lines": [ 25.666364, 25.668682, 25.7457, 25.823643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.6449, "volume": 32815, "typical_volume": 150202.4, "trend": 25.88615, "fair_value": 24.632955, "relative_strength": -8.348494, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.941291, "energy": 58.158917, "activity_lines": [ 25.66342, 25.663411, 25.725922, 25.80757 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.68, "volume": 547140, "typical_volume": 169153.85, "trend": 25.879504, "fair_value": 24.651526, "relative_strength": -8.883124, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.932725, "energy": 42.203173, "activity_lines": [ 25.6702, 25.665578, 25.711982, 25.79427 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.695, "volume": 245144, "typical_volume": 179043.6, "trend": 25.87186, "fair_value": 24.6704, "relative_strength": -11.589662, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.588144, "energy": 36.215516, "activity_lines": [ 25.67898, 25.669825, 25.70168, 25.782367 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }