{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6fdbc3ef-0e04-44b6-b1fb-383013f4f774", "symbol": "KDNC", "name": "Cadence Minerals Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 75.311, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.164, "architecture_energy": 24.696, "architecture_maturity": 2.258, "architecture_confidence": 41.163, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.08, "rotation_up": 15.92, "upward_expansion": 16.38, "deceleration": 59.09, "rotation_down": 60.28, "downward_expansion": 46.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0501, 0.053309, 0.057443, 0.055412 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.0515, "trend_reference": 0.051667, "distance_from_trend": -0.003226, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.038149, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.34998, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.859824, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.373333, "excess_performance": 0.322098, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003226, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.164101, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.34998, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.236579, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.088598, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.745566, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.373333, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.235916, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12642082, "relative_activity": 1.949938, "balance": 1.235916, "dry_up": 0.914465, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.247901, "annualized_volatility": 0.875005, "from_high_reference": -0.379518, "from_low_reference": 1.917847 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.051667, "fair_value_reference": 0.038149, "structural_low": 0.035, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.057036, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.072238, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.05036, "worst_return": -0.172619, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.208633, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.14873, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.059524, "worst_return": -0.21134, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.35567, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.323765, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.172619, "worst_return": -0.402878, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"start": "2023-05-12", "end": "2023-05-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012658, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-05-26", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.807107, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.189189, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.15625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.289474, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029851, "active": false }, { "regime": 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0.059382, 0.059219, 0.055545 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0495, "volume": 2886451, "typical_volume": 6025131.75, "trend": 0.050683, "fair_value": 0.038514, "relative_strength": 8.670674, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.134169, "energy": 21.793129, "activity_lines": [ 0.050933, 0.056755, 0.058612, 0.055502 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.049, "volume": 5599859, "typical_volume": 6086090.15, "trend": 0.051217, "fair_value": 0.038315, "relative_strength": 5.091536, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.996819, "energy": 27.617791, "activity_lines": [ 0.049567, 0.054591, 0.057917, 0.055394 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0515, "volume": 12642082, "typical_volume": 6483325.15, "trend": 0.051667, "fair_value": 0.038149, "relative_strength": 8.859824, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.164, "energy": 24.695929, "activity_lines": [ 0.0501, 0.053309, 0.057443, 0.055412 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }