{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "6fdc3972-ae60-4128-8594-c7cba3b8408a",
    "symbol": "NUSA",
    "name": "NUSHARES ETF TRUST NUVEEN ESG 1-5 YEAR US AGGREGATE BD ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 84.611,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -50.999,
    "architecture_energy": 37.646,
    "architecture_maturity": 4.062,
    "architecture_confidence": 91.899,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 34.6,
        "rotation_up": 15.99,
        "upward_expansion": 6.72,
        "deceleration": 42.46,
        "rotation_down": 55.28,
        "downward_expansion": 82.38
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        23.026964,
        23.041168
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 23.04,
    "trend_reference": 23.057915,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.000777,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 21.945723,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.049863,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -10.761873,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.002538,
    "excess_performance": -0.128162,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.000777,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.000798,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.049863,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.011458,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.107619,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.004055,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.002538,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.963332,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 22262,
      "relative_activity": 0.882205,
      "balance": 0.963332,
      "dry_up": 0.848402,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.004374,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.021011,
      "from_high_reference": -0.008471,
      "from_low_reference": 0.019845
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 23.057915,
      "fair_value_reference": 21.945723,
      "structural_low": 22.884726,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": -0.005537,
        "positive_rate": 0.384615,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.615385,
        "median_excess_return": 0.021521,
        "regime_survival": 0.846154,
        "best_return": 0.014959,
        "worst_return": -0.020151,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
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        "worst_return": -0.039958,
        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Extended",
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        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "end": "2023-02-24",
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "typical_volume": 36935.0,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "direction": -19.492193,
        "energy": 24.051754,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 27149.3,
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        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "trend": 23.042977,
        "fair_value": 21.789567,
        "relative_strength": -9.103045,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
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        "energy": 10.934907,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 27897.35,
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        "relative_strength": -8.864262,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 28140.25,
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        "fair_value": 21.877904,
        "relative_strength": -9.964658,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
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        "gate": "down",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 22220,
        "typical_volume": 26895.05,
        "trend": 23.061083,
        "fair_value": 21.895005,
        "relative_strength": -8.100928,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -42.014136,
        "energy": 20.971438,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.029099,
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          23.042394,
          23.054962
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 22.946881,
        "volume": 23326,
        "typical_volume": 27153.45,
        "trend": 23.058988,
        "fair_value": 21.911737,
        "relative_strength": -7.634496,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -61.238306,
        "energy": 45.934259,
        "activity_lines": [
          22.997209,
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          23.032621,
          23.047594
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 22.976779,
        "volume": 17828,
        "typical_volume": 25387.25,
        "trend": 23.057398,
        "fair_value": 21.928413,
        "relative_strength": -8.201655,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -54.652351,
        "energy": 50.584711,
        "activity_lines": [
          22.982759,
          23.011136,
          23.026648,
          23.04229
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 23.04,
        "volume": 22262,
        "typical_volume": 25234.5,
        "trend": 23.057915,
        "fair_value": 21.945723,
        "relative_strength": -10.761873,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -50.998639,
        "energy": 37.646498,
        "activity_lines": [
          22.998849,
          23.013912,
          23.026964,
          23.041168
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}