{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6fe33274-9c2e-4609-b935-6fe2099ef7c0", "symbol": "MS51", "name": "Super Micro Computer, Inc.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.547, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -13.654, "architecture_energy": 14.818, "architecture_maturity": 12.48, "architecture_confidence": 58.049, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.47, "rotation_up": 19.47, "upward_expansion": 13.89, "deceleration": 67.59, "rotation_down": 49.99, "downward_expansion": 41.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.089334, 25.355636, 26.786167, 26.413602 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 26.540001, "trend_reference": 26.238167, "distance_from_trend": 0.011504, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 38.970372, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.31897, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.013836, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.077832, "excess_performance": -0.142472, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011504, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022987, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.31897, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06375, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.180138, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.077832, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.473236, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 303624, "relative_activity": 0.75792, "balance": 1.473236, "dry_up": 1.371709, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.184743, "annualized_volatility": 1.056178, "from_high_reference": -0.477559, "from_low_reference": 0.58306 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.238167, "fair_value_reference": 38.970372, "structural_low": 16.764999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.002239, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.030828, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.002239, "worst_return": -0.002239, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.344204, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.043448, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.127612, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.08, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", 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"typical_volume": 339259.25, "trend": 26.542167, "fair_value": 39.585819, "relative_strength": -28.106581, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.952862, "energy": 22.250011, "activity_lines": [ 26.728, 28.986909, 27.474047, 26.951204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 25.1, "volume": 724938, "typical_volume": 366804.5, "trend": 26.445167, "fair_value": 39.462009, "relative_strength": -22.902939, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.461114, "energy": 21.371318, "activity_lines": [ 25.644, 28.240727, 27.342928, 26.858161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.0, "volume": 443580, "typical_volume": 377089.1, "trend": 26.2805, "fair_value": 39.305551, "relative_strength": -33.889399, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.971289, "energy": 33.576768, "activity_lines": [ 23.973333, 26.715272, 26.833143, 26.50686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.74, "volume": 740068, "typical_volume": 399768.4, "trend": 26.305167, "fair_value": 39.199958, "relative_strength": -15.698228, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.045286, "energy": 22.943251, "activity_lines": [ 24.598667, 26.397454, 26.901785, 26.536505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.08, "volume": 710765, "typical_volume": 425703.2, "trend": 26.219833, "fair_value": 39.073958, "relative_strength": -24.320685, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.919475, "energy": 20.35511, "activity_lines": [ 24.326667, 25.597091, 26.720714, 26.392946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.540001, "volume": 303624, "typical_volume": 400601.85, "trend": 26.238167, "fair_value": 38.970372, "relative_strength": -18.013836, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.65381, "energy": 14.818208, "activity_lines": [ 25.089334, 25.355636, 26.786167, 26.413602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }