{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6fe6b539-2c36-4723-8557-16ec817bdf29", "symbol": "TAYD", "name": "Taylor Devices Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.419, "architecture_energy": 38.975, "architecture_maturity": 29.47, "architecture_confidence": 79.801, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.44, "rotation_up": 16.65, "upward_expansion": 11.28, "deceleration": 55.28, "rotation_down": 53.67, "downward_expansion": 70.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.654333, 54.907455, 54.641476, 57.862366 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 54.24, "trend_reference": 63.057833, "distance_from_trend": -0.139837, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.592864, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.216338, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.603405, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.322846, "excess_performance": -0.5103, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.139837, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006114, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.216338, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023839, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.176034, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021642, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.322846, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.988335, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 111909, "relative_activity": 0.547089, "balance": 0.988335, "dry_up": 0.951401, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080107, "annualized_volatility": 0.582027, "from_high_reference": -0.399801, "from_low_reference": 0.339259 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.057833, "fair_value_reference": 44.592864, "structural_low": 48.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.016279, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": 0.03187, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.339771, "worst_return": -0.2097, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.06286, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.05269, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.374248, "worst_return": -0.2097, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.035642, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.034514, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.086068, "worst_return": -0.123222, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"direction": -29.560094, "energy": 24.988125, "activity_lines": [ 57.401333, 55.733818, 56.415571, 60.538151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 54.67, "volume": 256189, "typical_volume": 206650.7, "trend": 64.192, "fair_value": 43.985459, "relative_strength": -13.843124, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.894086, "energy": 24.813251, "activity_lines": [ 56.624667, 55.778364, 55.859476, 59.918796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.225, "volume": 283286, "typical_volume": 212145.25, "trend": 63.954167, "fair_value": 44.183633, "relative_strength": -13.099361, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.539651, "energy": 30.699082, "activity_lines": [ 55.667, 55.692727, 55.418476, 59.275763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.33, "volume": 127066, "typical_volume": 208307.75, "trend": 63.5235, "fair_value": 44.364979, "relative_strength": -18.088046, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.201838, "energy": 42.94199, "activity_lines": [ 53.811333, 55.032091, 54.836357, 58.461301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.24, "volume": 111909, "typical_volume": 204553.6, "trend": 63.057833, "fair_value": 44.592864, "relative_strength": -17.603405, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.418513, "energy": 38.975212, "activity_lines": [ 53.654333, 54.907455, 54.641476, 57.862366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }