{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6fe7145a-49d9-4360-ab4e-8dd9e958b49c", "symbol": "002292", "name": "Alpha Group", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 91.656, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -0.303, "architecture_energy": 12.498, "architecture_maturity": 83.725, "architecture_confidence": 59.108, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.53, "rotation_up": 37.1, "upward_expansion": 32.5, "deceleration": 46.78, "rotation_down": 17.77, "downward_expansion": 43.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.842667, 7.564727, 7.532857, 7.711978 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.15, "trend_reference": 8.102667, "distance_from_trend": 0.005842, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.190128, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.0049, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.20451, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.130203, "excess_performance": -0.137603, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005842, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064789, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.0049, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028829, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.082045, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.198679, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.130203, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.598819, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 277491394, "relative_activity": 1.629623, "balance": 0.598819, "dry_up": 2.024972, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088721, "annualized_volatility": 0.418602, "from_high_reference": -0.250919, "from_low_reference": 0.291601 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.102667, "fair_value_reference": 8.190128, "structural_low": 6.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.001522, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.027383, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.269755, "worst_return": -0.252546, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.013587, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.041656, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.180702, "worst_return": -0.196051, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.08554, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.017882, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": -0.036685, "worst_return": -0.130208, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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[ 7.366667, 7.216, 7.414429, 7.703656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.25, "volume": 423635262, "typical_volume": 162510986.4, "trend": 8.126, "fair_value": 8.210256, "relative_strength": -2.947248, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.953899, "energy": 14.959356, "activity_lines": [ 7.677333, 7.404545, 7.478095, 7.71043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.15, "volume": 277491394, "typical_volume": 170279549.05, "trend": 8.102667, "fair_value": 8.190128, "relative_strength": -8.20451, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.302584, "energy": 12.498147, "activity_lines": [ 7.842667, 7.564727, 7.532857, 7.711978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }