{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6fe9ff5e-57ec-487a-a97a-b613b4d9ede4", "symbol": "AEUSE", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy ESG Enhanced Europe UCITS ETF EUR Capitalisation", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.251, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.328, "architecture_energy": 68.798, "architecture_maturity": 37.61, "architecture_confidence": 63.688, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.53, "rotation_up": 54.59, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 66.87, "rotation_down": 29.08, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.8688, 12.84, 12.618886, 12.41963 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.07, "trend_reference": 12.196733, "distance_from_trend": 0.071598, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.265275, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.160202, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.96239, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.104072, "excess_performance": -0.06682, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071598, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045291, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.160202, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080957, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039624, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025577, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.104072, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.405106, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3247, "relative_activity": 0.236828, "balance": 0.405106, "dry_up": 0.569515, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014443, "annualized_volatility": 0.177273, "from_high_reference": -0.001223, "from_low_reference": 0.244288 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.196733, "fair_value_reference": 11.265275, "structural_low": 10.824, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-01-31", "close": 10.332, "volume": 150, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-07", "close": 10.332, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-14", "close": 10.332, "volume": 0, 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null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 12.63, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 12.76, "volume": 1640, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 13.076, "volume": 1620, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.848, "volume": 19813, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.848, "volume": 820, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.734, "volume": 27166, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.734, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.07, "volume": 3247, "typical_volume": 13710.35, "trend": 12.196733, "fair_value": 11.265275, "relative_strength": -3.96239, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.327579, "energy": 68.798479, "activity_lines": [ 12.8688, 12.84, 12.618886, 12.41963 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }