{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6feaa112-2ee1-402f-af63-bc68295179c1", "symbol": "BUR", "name": "Burford Capital Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.351, "architecture_energy": 55.92, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.717, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.17, "rotation_up": 29.19, "upward_expansion": 9.86, "deceleration": 60.42, "rotation_down": 50.57, "downward_expansion": 83.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 311.746667, 314.774545, 325.527662, 364.811813 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 315.6, "trend_reference": 440.952726, "distance_from_trend": -0.284277, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 917.7443, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.656113, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -51.941639, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.518468, "excess_performance": -0.569703, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.284277, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.213826, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.656113, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037037, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.519416, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025012, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.518468, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.606888, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2357271, "relative_activity": 1.333836, "balance": 0.606888, "dry_up": 0.692244, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093043, "annualized_volatility": 0.866847, "from_high_reference": -0.70051, "from_low_reference": 0.128107 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 440.952726, "fair_value_reference": 917.7443, "structural_low": 279.760593, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.008081, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.0296, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.472536, "worst_return": -0.388475, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.005935, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.015284, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.270438, "worst_return": -0.522383, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.058167, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.06323, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.437099, "worst_return": -0.51871, 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"down", "direction": -64.614651, "energy": 59.7822, "activity_lines": [ 315.746667, 320.221818, 334.070375, 384.339934 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 300.6, "volume": 782367, "typical_volume": 1710638.05, "trend": 453.546138, "fair_value": 922.712144, "relative_strength": -55.222186, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.025613, "energy": 61.588264, "activity_lines": [ 310.64, 315.774545, 328.381599, 373.711564 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 315.6, "volume": 2357271, "typical_volume": 1767287.55, "trend": 440.952726, "fair_value": 917.7443, "relative_strength": -51.941639, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.350822, "energy": 55.919727, "activity_lines": [ 311.746667, 314.774545, 325.527662, 364.811813 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }