{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6feb80ce-1049-47e7-bc84-f067ee0162ba", "symbol": "LEU", "name": "Centrus Energy Corp.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.289, "architecture_energy": 14.452, "architecture_maturity": 70.801, "architecture_confidence": 68.174, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.19, "rotation_up": 27.09, "upward_expansion": 19.46, "deceleration": 41.4, "rotation_down": 28.62, "downward_expansion": 55.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 175.959333, 172.176, 176.386286, 182.778473 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 191.37, "trend_reference": 199.448333, "distance_from_trend": -0.040503, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 126.362692, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.51445, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.106947, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.273655, "excess_performance": -0.39928, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.040503, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137328, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.51445, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.291893, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.271069, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065932, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.273655, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.947741, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3608514, "relative_activity": 0.87303, "balance": 0.947741, "dry_up": 1.028548, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.141952, "annualized_volatility": 0.659013, "from_high_reference": -0.587787, "from_low_reference": 0.346443 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 199.448333, "fair_value_reference": 126.362692, "structural_low": 142.13, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.047897, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.021566, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 1.190402, "worst_return": -0.219698, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.08764, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.040817, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 2.464635, "worst_return": -0.350825, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.762733, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.71091, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 4.506038, "worst_return": -0.117104, "sufficient": true }, { 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177.833095, 188.392796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 163.89, "volume": 3513848, "typical_volume": 4181316.9, "trend": 206.461333, "fair_value": 124.546603, "relative_strength": -35.436512, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.95812, "energy": 36.83485, "activity_lines": [ 163.105333, 166.848909, 175.93319, 185.451828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 176.93, "volume": 3577982, "typical_volume": 4150204.55, "trend": 203.275667, "fair_value": 125.409936, "relative_strength": -30.659518, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.438849, "energy": 29.846454, "activity_lines": [ 167.506, 168.177636, 175.394238, 183.546581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 191.37, "volume": 3608514, "typical_volume": 4133320.95, "trend": 199.448333, "fair_value": 126.362692, "relative_strength": -27.106947, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.289389, "energy": 14.451693, "activity_lines": [ 175.959333, 172.176, 176.386286, 182.778473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }