{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6febeb39-0763-4fb6-87ad-7ba8c7f31014", "symbol": "APG", "name": "Api Group\u00a0Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.989, "architecture_energy": 44.885, "architecture_maturity": 5.497, "architecture_confidence": 89.839, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.88, "rotation_up": 15.71, "upward_expansion": 8.56, "deceleration": 41.42, "rotation_down": 55.9, "downward_expansion": 81.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.508667, 40.884727, 41.785, 42.138043 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 41.72, "trend_reference": 42.515667, "distance_from_trend": -0.018715, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.597927, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.409558, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.094151, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.061417, "excess_performance": -0.187042, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018715, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019511, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.409558, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.186194, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.070942, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103579, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.061417, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.040411, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13015273, "relative_activity": 0.911399, "balance": 1.040411, "dry_up": 0.986366, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063602, "annualized_volatility": 0.240105, "from_high_reference": -0.165433, "from_low_reference": 0.249102 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.515667, "fair_value_reference": 29.597927, "structural_low": 37.48, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.036656, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.019851, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.337324, "worst_return": -0.135258, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.050114, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.015111, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.246319, "worst_return": -0.343665, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.104641, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.043779, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.362115, "worst_return": -0.319052, "sufficient": false }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 41.121333, 41.485455, 42.388429, 42.56028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.57, "volume": 15827194, "typical_volume": 14420629.7, "trend": 42.497, "fair_value": 29.316047, "relative_strength": -7.929579, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.908148, "energy": 50.986531, "activity_lines": [ 40.501333, 41.091818, 42.107857, 42.371441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.68, "volume": 18175283, "typical_volume": 14565677.95, "trend": 42.520667, "fair_value": 29.450235, "relative_strength": -8.556368, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.998986, "energy": 57.20817, "activity_lines": [ 40.116, 40.785091, 41.848714, 42.189699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.72, "volume": 13015273, "typical_volume": 14280548.45, "trend": 42.515667, "fair_value": 29.597927, "relative_strength": -7.094151, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.988738, "energy": 44.884819, "activity_lines": [ 40.508667, 40.884727, 41.785, 42.138043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }