{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6fede0d6-0f17-4961-8a42-0cbe038181cf", "symbol": "KPN", "name": "Koninklijke KPN N.V.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 72.578, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.233, "architecture_energy": 79.408, "architecture_maturity": 16.906, "architecture_confidence": 81.924, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.96, "rotation_up": 12.23, "upward_expansion": 18.19, "deceleration": 37.91, "rotation_down": 75.01, "downward_expansion": 93.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.097179, 4.165039, 4.302108, 4.377073 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.016, "trend_reference": 4.395428, "distance_from_trend": -0.086323, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.589215, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.118908, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.949714, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.082481, "excess_performance": -0.256728, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086323, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031112, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.118908, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.20052, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.219497, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163177, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.082481, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.305228, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53251, "relative_activity": 0.826092, "balance": 2.305228, "dry_up": 0.961817, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039246, "annualized_volatility": 0.190438, "from_high_reference": -0.173772, "from_low_reference": 0.094087 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.395428, "fair_value_reference": 3.589215, "structural_low": 3.946, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.003713, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.052503, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.054041, "worst_return": -0.102128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.013511, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.065378, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.135978, "worst_return": -0.046154, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.08536, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.010591, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.196217, "worst_return": 0.046488, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.209774, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.058229, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.316401, "worst_return": 0.111743, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01129, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000566, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035324, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022331, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045905, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.061433, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01361, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007935, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018731, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047316, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032143, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00152, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089153, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040332, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.868319, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 2.800009, "fair_value": 2.402176, "relative_strength": 8.490718, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.864791, 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"regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.547725, "energy": 62.54117, "activity_lines": [ 4.243794, 4.325887, 4.44217, 4.442719 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.278954, "volume": 68592, "typical_volume": 71810.2, "trend": 4.371134, "fair_value": 3.567035, "relative_strength": -14.471084, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.590946, "energy": 50.182275, "activity_lines": [ 4.241873, 4.303741, 4.419043, 4.437731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.089, "volume": 9365, "typical_volume": 65190.15, "trend": 4.379283, "fair_value": 3.574505, "relative_strength": -19.009269, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.378689, "energy": 65.167416, "activity_lines": [ 4.188038, 4.25244, 4.379705, 4.419529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.092, "volume": 116792, "typical_volume": 66649.5, "trend": 4.386782, "fair_value": 3.581835, "relative_strength": -18.504816, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.895987, "energy": 66.054374, "activity_lines": [ 4.14597, 4.210831, 4.343021, 4.400995 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.016, "volume": 53251, "typical_volume": 64461.35, "trend": 4.395428, "fair_value": 3.589215, "relative_strength": -21.949714, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.233187, "energy": 79.408071, "activity_lines": [ 4.097179, 4.165039, 4.302108, 4.377073 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }