{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6feecd30-e5d2-4837-9698-4db50a201114", "symbol": "AXR", "name": "AMREP Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 80.035, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -42.62, "architecture_energy": 48.125, "architecture_maturity": 43.091, "architecture_confidence": 64.494, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.68, "rotation_up": 19.83, "upward_expansion": 17.74, "deceleration": 44.54, "rotation_down": 57.23, "downward_expansion": 54.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.822667, 24.474727, 25.124952, 25.325011 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 22.35, "trend_reference": 25.036333, "distance_from_trend": -0.107297, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.254263, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.038886, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.063453, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.066317, "excess_performance": -0.059308, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.107297, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062933, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.038886, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188657, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.160635, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163793, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.066317, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.552291, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55205, "relative_activity": 1.049348, "balance": 0.552291, "dry_up": 1.013741, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092807, "annualized_volatility": 0.398158, "from_high_reference": -0.229576, "from_low_reference": 0.269165 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.036333, "fair_value_reference": 23.254263, "structural_low": 20.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.098503, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": 0.075018, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.293495, "worst_return": -0.238988, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.048437, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.012011, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.328957, "worst_return": -0.309785, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.334339, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.209906, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.368341, "worst_return": -0.164606, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.009573, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.085287, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.853881, "worst_return": -0.247262, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005548, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012425, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.031709, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039915, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.171484, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.197468, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.268966, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03034, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032123, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.256764, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006257, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027413, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.140715, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 16.31, "volume": 43880, "typical_volume": 44199.55, "trend": 15.01367, "fair_value": 12.154942, "relative_strength": 11.189059, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", 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25.398667, 25.354909, 25.787381, 25.55157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.41, "volume": 27275, "typical_volume": 51252.05, "trend": 24.864333, "fair_value": 23.176442, "relative_strength": -0.741843, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.401512, "energy": 10.760183, "activity_lines": [ 25.441333, 25.364364, 25.733286, 25.600882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.24, "volume": 93894, "typical_volume": 55370.65, "trend": 25.001667, "fair_value": 23.217083, "relative_strength": -9.969543, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.67428, "energy": 24.125963, "activity_lines": [ 24.725333, 24.975273, 25.468667, 25.496086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.35, "volume": 55205, "typical_volume": 52608.85, "trend": 25.036333, "fair_value": 23.254263, "relative_strength": -16.063453, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.620089, "energy": 48.125298, "activity_lines": [ 23.822667, 24.474727, 25.124952, 25.325011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }