{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "6fefe431-e6d4-454d-a52c-15e9284f0492",
    "symbol": "CSL",
    "name": "Carlisle Companies Incorporated",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 30.837,
    "architecture_energy": 16.218,
    "architecture_maturity": 31.019,
    "architecture_confidence": 70.876,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 56.92,
        "rotation_up": 40.09,
        "upward_expansion": 41.92,
        "deceleration": 41.16,
        "rotation_down": 33.28,
        "downward_expansion": 14.26
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        360.408,
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        354.081118,
        353.816555
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Stable",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 387.49,
    "trend_reference": 356.233422,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.087742,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 355.115181,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.091167,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -0.924077,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.034775,
    "excess_performance": -0.1604,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.087742,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.032433,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.091167,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.053226,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.009241,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.095946,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.034775,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.389814,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1861189,
      "relative_activity": 0.873794,
      "balance": 1.389814,
      "dry_up": 1.172014,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.081237,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.35863,
      "from_high_reference": -0.099545,
      "from_low_reference": 0.32848
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 356.233422,
      "fair_value_reference": 355.115181,
      "structural_low": 320.23,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": 0.059952,
        "positive_rate": 0.7,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.7,
        "median_excess_return": 0.057588,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.227612,
        "worst_return": -0.176537,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.013404,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.042411,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.165338,
        "worst_return": -0.154905,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.044696,
        "positive_rate": 0.2,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.2,
        "median_excess_return": -0.125067,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.01361,
        "worst_return": -0.092646,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.015124,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.18099,
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        "best_return": 0.076356,
        "worst_return": -0.046109,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 345.39,
        "volume": 2457706,
        "typical_volume": 2102575.5,
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        "fair_value": 353.43874,
        "relative_strength": -9.453162,
        "stage": 1,
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -19.872751,
        "energy": 10.404762,
        "activity_lines": [
          352.348,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 336.04,
        "volume": 2377556,
        "typical_volume": 2142885.85,
        "trend": 353.963841,
        "fair_value": 353.872133,
        "relative_strength": -10.623519,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -41.077281,
        "energy": 23.740882,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 359.92,
        "volume": 3289155,
        "typical_volume": 2171674.75,
        "trend": 355.0775,
        "fair_value": 354.419899,
        "relative_strength": -5.007095,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -26.443916,
        "energy": 17.939672,
        "activity_lines": [
          347.122667,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 387.49,
        "volume": 1861189,
        "typical_volume": 2130009.95,
        "trend": 356.233422,
        "fair_value": 355.115181,
        "relative_strength": -0.924077,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 30.836648,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}