{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ffc5785-f8e5-4782-8046-31c4c057fb23", "symbol": "FDN", "name": "First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 75.462, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.199, "architecture_energy": 84.045, "architecture_maturity": 10.143, "architecture_confidence": 84.082, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.21, "rotation_up": 67.78, "upward_expansion": 95.13, "deceleration": 44.73, "rotation_down": 15.84, "downward_expansion": 21.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 4772.0, 4730.511257, 4677.421949, 4595.476588 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4772.0, "trend_reference": 4537.062353, "distance_from_trend": 0.051782, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4235.286346, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.126724, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.568961, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.124623, "excess_performance": 0.17929, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051782, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020671, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.126724, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004274, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.02569, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121406, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.124623, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.7, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 3.7, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016155, "annualized_volatility": 0.212305, "from_high_reference": -0.095012, "from_low_reference": 0.205051 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4537.062353, "fair_value_reference": 4235.286346, "structural_low": 3960.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.019619, "positive_rate": 0.62069, "directional_follow_through": 0.62069, "median_excess_return": 0.011634, "regime_survival": 0.724138, "best_return": 0.141136, "worst_return": -0.175397, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.024195, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.034405, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.28669, "worst_return": -0.098669, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.038324, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.066368, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.458684, "worst_return": -0.198039, "sufficient": 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4619.874609, 4649.097434, 4552.560526, 4524.311218 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4772.0, "volume": 24, "typical_volume": 130.8, "trend": 4556.162353, "fair_value": 4186.261281, "relative_strength": -3.640532, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.069274, "energy": 27.852277, "activity_lines": [ 4657.672624, 4672.519798, 4583.133287, 4537.928163 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4772.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 123.3, "trend": 4551.387353, "fair_value": 4198.450896, "relative_strength": -3.410363, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.832451, "energy": 50.327325, "activity_lines": [ 4704.403971, 4692.760343, 4610.458429, 4551.853172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4772.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 122.1, "trend": 4546.612353, "fair_value": 4210.640512, "relative_strength": -2.657913, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.920132, "energy": 81.239738, "activity_lines": [ 4739.135319, 4710.055433, 4634.80738, 4566.086246 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4772.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 116.2, "trend": 4541.837353, "fair_value": 4222.869679, "relative_strength": -2.959751, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.895693, "energy": 86.258769, "activity_lines": [ 4761.866667, 4722.639071, 4657.180141, 4580.627385 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4772.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 116.2, "trend": 4537.062353, "fair_value": 4235.286346, "relative_strength": -2.568961, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.198671, "energy": 84.045147, "activity_lines": [ 4772.0, 4730.511257, 4677.421949, 4595.476588 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }