{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ffe64e0-4827-4092-9619-ed661a9365aa", "symbol": "LOVE", "name": "The Lovesac Company", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 89.698, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.892, "architecture_energy": 33.651, "architecture_maturity": 33.267, "architecture_confidence": 74.364, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.25, "rotation_up": 50.75, "upward_expansion": 76.38, "deceleration": 61.13, "rotation_down": 20.38, "downward_expansion": 3.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.044, 16.887182, 16.465976, 15.797108 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.82, "trend_reference": 15.040833, "distance_from_trend": 0.184775, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.398686, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.126414, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.683171, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.347958, "excess_performance": 0.160504, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.184775, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060433, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.126414, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118708, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.016832, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.188654, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.347958, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.382438, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1660695, "relative_activity": 1.328314, "balance": 1.382438, "dry_up": 0.981673, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125269, "annualized_volatility": 0.626938, "from_high_reference": -0.146552, "from_low_reference": 0.725073 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.040833, "fair_value_reference": 20.398686, "structural_low": 10.33, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.051429, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.04551, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.209372, "worst_return": -0.228581, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.070421, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.162395, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.116541, "worst_return": -0.126629, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.459904, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.47864, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.312287, "worst_return": -0.468741, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.295009, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.51358, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.287183, "worst_return": -0.302836, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.200468, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010305, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035088, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.079812, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.084795, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.301329, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.12117, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.152021, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.324081, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019291, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036341, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.076287, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018868, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 23.84, "volume": 2172368, "typical_volume": 1761085.15, "trend": 26.211333, "fair_value": 43.178333, "relative_strength": -18.827606, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.198315, "energy": 63.458524, "activity_lines": [ 17.260333, 16.666364, 16.099048, 15.445806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.34, "volume": 1089749, "typical_volume": 1235365.85, "trend": 14.9285, "fair_value": 20.518045, "relative_strength": -2.618514, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.433482, "energy": 50.317397, "activity_lines": [ 17.116, 16.677727, 16.205071, 15.539172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.09, "volume": 979852, "typical_volume": 1223535.6, "trend": 14.9835, "fair_value": 20.436506, "relative_strength": -4.015443, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.157468, "energy": 30.258134, "activity_lines": [ 16.763667, 16.624545, 16.266143, 15.614108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.82, "volume": 1660695, "typical_volume": 1250228.2, "trend": 15.040833, "fair_value": 20.398686, "relative_strength": 1.683171, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.891685, "energy": 33.65143, "activity_lines": [ 17.044, 16.887182, 16.465976, 15.797108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }