{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7004fe00-0a50-49d2-b9a6-6d4651ef7785", "symbol": "NFM", "name": "New Frontier Minerals Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.874, "architecture_energy": 28.212, "architecture_maturity": 58.917, "architecture_confidence": 75.891, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.94, "rotation_up": 26.81, "upward_expansion": 19.72, "deceleration": 45.71, "rotation_down": 30.57, "downward_expansion": 56.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.00375, 0.003727, 0.003752, 0.004245 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.00375, "trend_reference": 0.005337, "distance_from_trend": -0.297314, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.005285, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.29047, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -48.082341, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.634146, "excess_performance": -0.685382, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.297314, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.270116, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.29047, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062794, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.480823, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060688, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.634146, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.59659, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26633, "relative_activity": 0.018442, "balance": 0.59659, "dry_up": 0.191539, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15959, "annualized_volatility": 0.840983, "from_high_reference": -0.6875, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.005337, "fair_value_reference": 0.005285, "structural_low": 0.003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.322581, "directional_follow_through": 0.483871, "median_excess_return": -0.017165, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.390244, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.164729, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.184866, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.454545, "worst_return": -0.32, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.167778, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.182766, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.565217, "worst_return": -0.514286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.266715, "energy": 40.43185, "activity_lines": [ 0.003683, 0.003673, 0.003883, 0.004764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.00375, "volume": 564675, "typical_volume": 2238449.95, "trend": 0.005837, "fair_value": 0.005295, "relative_strength": -48.389341, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.850255, "energy": 35.337032, "activity_lines": [ 0.0037, 0.003695, 0.003825, 0.004619 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.00375, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1742092.2, "trend": 0.005678, "fair_value": 0.005292, "relative_strength": -48.437115, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.053287, "energy": 34.018212, "activity_lines": [ 0.003717, 0.003714, 0.003791, 0.004484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.00375, "volume": 515109, "typical_volume": 1581871.15, "trend": 0.00552, "fair_value": 0.005288, "relative_strength": -48.478897, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.91676, "energy": 31.752844, "activity_lines": [ 0.003733, 0.003723, 0.003768, 0.00436 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.00375, "volume": 26633, "typical_volume": 1444110.8, "trend": 0.005337, "fair_value": 0.005285, "relative_strength": -48.082341, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.873809, "energy": 28.212041, "activity_lines": [ 0.00375, 0.003727, 0.003752, 0.004245 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }