{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7007c9d2-56a3-4d22-ad18-60ecb75c21b7", "symbol": "ATM", "name": "PT Antam (Persero) Tbk", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.635, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.384, "architecture_energy": 56.087, "architecture_maturity": 36.394, "architecture_confidence": 91.135, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.66, "rotation_up": 22.89, "upward_expansion": 10.54, "deceleration": 45.17, "rotation_down": 55.48, "downward_expansion": 83.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.906667, 0.909745, 0.921671, 0.937329 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.92, "trend_reference": 0.960958, "distance_from_trend": -0.042622, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.97629, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.057657, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.203247, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.111111, "excess_performance": -0.174817, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.042622, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005843, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.057657, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017072, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102032, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01773, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.111111, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.063123, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3975, "relative_activity": 1.517842, "balance": 1.063123, "dry_up": 0.506902, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022675, "annualized_volatility": 0.201705, "from_high_reference": -0.233333, "from_low_reference": 0.082353 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.960958, "fair_value_reference": 0.97629, "structural_low": 0.884701, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.35, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.017705, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.294118, "worst_return": -0.142857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.047618, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.021, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.170588, "worst_return": -0.165048, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.019504, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.007564, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.1, "worst_return": -0.03398, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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0.912696, 0.926022, 0.937028, 0.951211 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.9, "volume": 1335, "typical_volume": 2420.1, "trend": 0.957124, "fair_value": 0.977964, "relative_strength": -8.870279, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.505556, "energy": 61.060456, "activity_lines": [ 0.907485, 0.92053, 0.932034, 0.947418 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.9, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2420.1, "trend": 0.958791, "fair_value": 0.977364, "relative_strength": -8.225354, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.574349, "energy": 80.761509, "activity_lines": [ 0.903667, 0.915183, 0.927492, 0.943733 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.9, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2420.1, "trend": 0.960458, "fair_value": 0.976763, "relative_strength": -9.847769, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.501415, "energy": 80.447778, "activity_lines": [ 0.9, 0.910065, 0.923403, 0.93994 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.92, "volume": 3975, "typical_volume": 2618.85, "trend": 0.960958, "fair_value": 0.97629, "relative_strength": -10.203247, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.384115, "energy": 56.08686, "activity_lines": [ 0.906667, 0.909745, 0.921671, 0.937329 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }