{ "ticker": { "uuid": "700f6014-8836-43f0-bd89-00e0ef50a48d", "symbol": "BOTZ", "name": "GLOBAL X ROBOTICS & ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.995, "architecture_energy": 42.344, "architecture_maturity": 7.08, "architecture_confidence": 80.85, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.98, "rotation_up": 11.64, "upward_expansion": 16.81, "deceleration": 44.52, "rotation_down": 58.68, "downward_expansion": 73.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.742, 36.074889, 37.050932, 37.006683 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 37.61, "trend_reference": 37.108973, "distance_from_trend": 0.013501, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.073137, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.172632, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.648631, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.003469, "excess_performance": -0.183985, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013501, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005005, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.172632, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151506, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.096486, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080594, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003469, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.570271, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4023296, "relative_activity": 0.892275, "balance": 0.570271, "dry_up": 0.902091, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059234, "annualized_volatility": 0.304834, "from_high_reference": -0.097858, "from_low_reference": 0.179922 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.108973, "fair_value_reference": 32.073137, "structural_low": 31.875, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.01232, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.015304, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.174575, "worst_return": -0.145172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.074044, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015902, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.307258, "worst_return": -0.159915, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.192752, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.061735, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.346655, "worst_return": -0.20497, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.4, "volume": 3900024, "typical_volume": 4683552.4, "trend": 37.266063, "fair_value": 31.91638, "relative_strength": -14.811375, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.618229, "energy": 32.204585, "activity_lines": [ 36.143077, 37.015682, 37.43473, 37.323781 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.83, "volume": 3874357, "typical_volume": 4484249.2, "trend": 37.179307, "fair_value": 31.948431, "relative_strength": -14.548812, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.463218, "energy": 60.142478, "activity_lines": [ 35.216829, 36.280805, 37.136115, 37.102099 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.22, "volume": 4472543, "typical_volume": 4514592.0, "trend": 37.12964, "fair_value": 31.999182, "relative_strength": -11.271391, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.993391, "energy": 56.462136, "activity_lines": [ 35.055333, 35.914662, 36.980643, 36.975692 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.61, "volume": 4023296, "typical_volume": 4509029.0, "trend": 37.108973, "fair_value": 32.073137, "relative_strength": -9.648631, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.995369, "energy": 42.344494, "activity_lines": [ 35.742, 36.074889, 37.050932, 37.006683 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }