{ "ticker": { "uuid": "70102ef2-06fc-4203-a0f3-3d2b52ab1867", "symbol": "600028", "name": "China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.856, "architecture_energy": 28.356, "architecture_maturity": 85.0, "architecture_confidence": 49.625, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.83, "rotation_up": 40.89, "upward_expansion": 28.69, "deceleration": 50.17, "rotation_down": 16.85, "downward_expansion": 48.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.128667, 4.977766, 4.972273, 5.19681 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.1, "trend_reference": 5.513531, "distance_from_trend": -0.075003, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.653132, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.097845, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.883925, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.21659, "excess_performance": -0.173386, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075003, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053024, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.097845, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009647, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078839, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11105, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.21659, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.045295, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1316396421, "relative_activity": 1.232012, "balance": 1.045295, "dry_up": 1.38812, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044872, "annualized_volatility": 0.243282, "from_high_reference": -0.371147, "from_low_reference": 0.146067 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.513531, "fair_value_reference": 5.653132, "structural_low": 4.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.018955, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": 0.008691, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.146776, "worst_return": -0.049342, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.051037, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.022491, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.086587, "worst_return": -0.069079, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.040106, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.016002, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.161525, "worst_return": -0.041633, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 1349907172.8, "trend": 5.590531, "fair_value": 5.665045, "relative_strength": -5.931958, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.618148, "energy": 55.487417, "activity_lines": [ 4.802667, 4.778828, 4.982501, 5.271472 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.19, "volume": 1753533203, "typical_volume": 1179347472.8, "trend": 5.567198, "fair_value": 5.660965, "relative_strength": -3.874597, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.458841, "energy": 33.164098, "activity_lines": [ 4.951333, 4.850977, 4.972663, 5.245632 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.26, "volume": 1231894108, "typical_volume": 1083564817.55, "trend": 5.549531, "fair_value": 5.656706, "relative_strength": -2.693619, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.480938, "energy": 32.734267, "activity_lines": [ 5.091333, 4.932661, 4.97754, 5.225812 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.1, "volume": 1316396421, "typical_volume": 1068493398.4, "trend": 5.513531, "fair_value": 5.653132, "relative_strength": -7.883925, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.856021, "energy": 28.35639, "activity_lines": [ 5.128667, 4.977766, 4.972273, 5.19681 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }