{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7016dfc5-9905-4882-ac85-823dcb96faff", "symbol": "HSY", "name": "The Hershey Company", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 86.036, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.454, "architecture_energy": 39.691, "architecture_maturity": 42.38, "architecture_confidence": 88.517, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.55, "rotation_up": 25.99, "upward_expansion": 5.86, "deceleration": 58.75, "rotation_down": 43.73, "downward_expansion": 76.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 154.46, 154.655454, 157.223397, 162.068161 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 158.350006, "trend_reference": 167.443314, "distance_from_trend": -0.054307, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 159.731642, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.00865, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.416786, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.173769, "excess_performance": -0.348016, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.054307, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001829, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.00865, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034075, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.204168, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046023, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.173769, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0625, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0625, "dry_up": 4.656085, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044728, "annualized_volatility": 0.242964, "from_high_reference": -0.213667, "from_low_reference": 0.15565 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 167.443314, "fair_value_reference": 159.731642, "structural_low": 148.300003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.001779, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.033713, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.132186, "worst_return": -0.085373, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.006029, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.020736, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.201125, "worst_return": -0.140096, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.007738, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.112832, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.132454, "worst_return": -0.134912, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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157.066718, 161.259084, 165.509219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 152.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1.3, "trend": 167.446651, "fair_value": 160.416066, "relative_strength": -21.401997, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.174826, "energy": 61.91805, "activity_lines": [ 153.889998, 155.965454, 159.799724, 164.530144 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 153.899994, "volume": 22, "typical_volume": 2.4, "trend": 167.487272, "fair_value": 160.151519, "relative_strength": -21.34066, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.098729, "energy": 51.119549, "activity_lines": [ 153.86333, 155.19818, 158.682517, 163.656167 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 151.949997, "volume": 330, "typical_volume": 18.9, "trend": 167.426825, "fair_value": 159.908836, "relative_strength": -21.758028, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.269508, "energy": 51.637685, "activity_lines": [ 152.909997, 154.215452, 157.561545, 162.653762 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 158.350006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 18.9, "trend": 167.443314, "fair_value": 159.731642, "relative_strength": -20.416786, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.454207, "energy": 39.690695, "activity_lines": [ 154.46, 154.655454, 157.223397, 162.068161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }