{ "ticker": { "uuid": "701e961e-05e0-4f65-b653-0b85cc867615", "symbol": "HOD", "name": "BetaPro Crude Oil Inverse Leveraged Daily Bear ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.428, "architecture_energy": 60.104, "architecture_maturity": 73.066, "architecture_confidence": 70.897, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.58, "rotation_up": 10.88, "upward_expansion": 9.15, "deceleration": 50.04, "rotation_down": 70.51, "downward_expansion": 80.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.168, 32.097636, 32.254619, 37.82972 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 29.190001, "trend_reference": 52.828667, "distance_from_trend": -0.447459, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 145.361282, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.79919, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -71.971947, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.740533, "excess_performance": -0.860955, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.447459, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.406286, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.79919, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018427, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.719719, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058456, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.740533, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.259652, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2980200, "relative_activity": 1.06838, "balance": 1.259652, "dry_up": 1.453025, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.197407, "annualized_volatility": 1.283893, "from_high_reference": -0.818131, "from_low_reference": 0.300802 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.828667, "fair_value_reference": 145.361282, "structural_low": 22.440001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.042683, "positive_rate": 0.405405, "directional_follow_through": 0.594595, "median_excess_return": -0.072288, "regime_survival": 0.864865, "best_return": 0.545838, "worst_return": -0.641921, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.044588, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.074074, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.311538, "worst_return": -0.78821, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.009542, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.102604, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.35, "worst_return": -0.687065, "sufficient": true }, 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"down", "direction": -71.669269, "energy": 53.513319, "activity_lines": [ 32.842667, 34.239454, 33.455809, 41.807032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.99, "volume": 4335500, "typical_volume": 2779864.8, "trend": 56.422333, "fair_value": 146.489872, "relative_strength": -74.934345, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.87565, "energy": 60.134859, "activity_lines": [ 29.388667, 32.875273, 32.667095, 39.586645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.190001, "volume": 2980200, "typical_volume": 2789456.8, "trend": 52.828667, "fair_value": 145.361282, "relative_strength": -71.971947, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.428176, "energy": 60.104025, "activity_lines": [ 28.168, 32.097636, 32.254619, 37.82972 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }