{ "ticker": { "uuid": "70208836-bd23-4dac-8278-fd99f5c03b9f", "symbol": "SFT", "name": "Shrinkflex (Thailand) Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.499, "architecture_energy": 60.938, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.369, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.65, "rotation_up": 29.12, "upward_expansion": 11.7, "deceleration": 60.98, "rotation_down": 52.08, "downward_expansion": 85.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.404, 1.411636, 1.462667, 1.526083 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.4, "trend_reference": 1.627011, "distance_from_trend": -0.139526, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.696013, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.480715, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.922684, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.285796, "excess_performance": -0.478121, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.139526, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11592, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.480715, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035744, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.349227, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032233, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.285796, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.927174, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 232000, "relative_activity": 1.414634, "balance": 0.927174, "dry_up": 1.370274, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040659, "annualized_volatility": 0.14486, "from_high_reference": -0.366532, "from_low_reference": 0.052632 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.627011, "fair_value_reference": 2.696013, "structural_low": 1.33, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.019608, "positive_rate": 0.351351, "directional_follow_through": 0.621622, "median_excess_return": -0.00182, "regime_survival": 0.837838, "best_return": 0.173267, "worst_return": -0.223529, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.016724, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.00896, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.216211, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.097265, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.037733, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.270274, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.946247, "energy": 90.740149, "activity_lines": [ 1.428667, 1.466, 1.540201, 1.616807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.4, "volume": 406600, "typical_volume": 198270.0, "trend": 1.707754, "fair_value": 2.767959, "relative_strength": -38.18983, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.32699, "energy": 88.289192, "activity_lines": [ 1.414667, 1.446909, 1.520795, 1.595417 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.42, "volume": 474200, "typical_volume": 167235.0, "trend": 1.685903, "fair_value": 2.750233, "relative_strength": -37.168342, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.466299, "energy": 66.383536, "activity_lines": [ 1.414, 1.435818, 1.505183, 1.576852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.42, "volume": 138800, "typical_volume": 166765.0, "trend": 1.666615, "fair_value": 2.732266, "relative_strength": -36.616691, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.498931, "energy": 64.556189, "activity_lines": [ 1.415333, 1.428364, 1.491046, 1.559697 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.39, "volume": 53900, "typical_volume": 164485.0, "trend": 1.644404, "fair_value": 2.713988, "relative_strength": -36.523739, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.018347, "energy": 65.646959, "activity_lines": [ 1.406667, 1.418182, 1.475571, 1.541851 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.4, "volume": 232000, "typical_volume": 164000.0, "trend": 1.627011, "fair_value": 2.696013, "relative_strength": -34.922684, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.498889, "energy": 60.938472, "activity_lines": [ 1.404, 1.411636, 1.462667, 1.526083 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }