{ "ticker": { "uuid": "70212fed-d520-45ae-b984-b6c6a8629fc4", "symbol": "WCE", "name": "West Coast Silver Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.698, "architecture_energy": 55.026, "architecture_maturity": 66.184, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.33, "rotation_up": 25.82, "upward_expansion": 9.09, "deceleration": 54.75, "rotation_down": 51.61, "downward_expansion": 80.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.1038, 0.105927, 0.1196, 0.134303 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.115, "trend_reference": 0.157867, "distance_from_trend": -0.271537, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.112064, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.026198, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.733008, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.394737, "excess_performance": -0.458442, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.271537, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.152773, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.026198, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.380752, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.36733, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.324529, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.394737, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.486218, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6081942, "relative_activity": 1.521654, "balance": 0.486218, "dry_up": 0.996344, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.159197, "annualized_volatility": 0.750673, "from_high_reference": -0.603448, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.157867, "fair_value_reference": 0.112064, "structural_low": 0.092, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.005208, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005779, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 2.947368, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.242424, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.243032, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 2.222222, "worst_return": -0.574468, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.235431, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.204226, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.526316, "worst_return": -0.148936, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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1995132, "typical_volume": 4463872.3, "trend": 0.1725, "fair_value": 0.112442, "relative_strength": -43.808869, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.744868, "energy": 69.74734, "activity_lines": [ 0.107133, 0.114127, 0.130343, 0.146972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.095, "volume": 4559987, "typical_volume": 4133085.5, "trend": 0.1675, "fair_value": 0.112282, "relative_strength": -45.438766, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.859512, "energy": 61.800171, "activity_lines": [ 0.1028, 0.109127, 0.125605, 0.141972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.096, "volume": 3292204, "typical_volume": 4018331.75, "trend": 0.162367, "fair_value": 0.11216, "relative_strength": -45.863934, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.096371, "energy": 60.75268, "activity_lines": [ 0.100133, 0.105309, 0.121486, 0.137359 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.115, "volume": 6081942, "typical_volume": 3996928.25, "trend": 0.157867, "fair_value": 0.112064, "relative_strength": -36.733008, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.698204, "energy": 55.026048, "activity_lines": [ 0.1038, 0.105927, 0.1196, 0.134303 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }