{ "ticker": { "uuid": "70215281-5bb2-4904-94a8-d2f83ba4dc27", "symbol": "CBUSAC", "name": "UBS Core BBG US Liquid Corp UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 79.32, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.008, "architecture_energy": 67.779, "architecture_maturity": 4.569, "architecture_confidence": 78.972, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.16, "rotation_up": 11.39, "upward_expansion": 17.61, "deceleration": 34.29, "rotation_down": 70.86, "downward_expansion": 88.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.704833, 14.770791, 14.813086, 14.828449 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.747, "trend_reference": 14.852667, "distance_from_trend": -0.007114, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.000628, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.05331, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.349957, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.009271, "excess_performance": -0.092154, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007114, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 1.6e-05, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.05331, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022177, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1035, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082103, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.009271, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.427955, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 65865, "relative_activity": 1.949915, "balance": 2.427955, "dry_up": 0.901671, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008158, "annualized_volatility": 0.052127, "from_high_reference": -0.023927, "from_low_reference": 0.020978 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.852667, "fair_value_reference": 14.000628, "structural_low": 14.5895, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.009498, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": 0.007306, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.052973, "worst_return": -0.050181, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.004949, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.034033, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.107479, "worst_return": -0.108633, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.013456, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003514, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.078895, "worst_return": -0.103845, "sufficient": false }, { 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"volume": 16900, "typical_volume": 34101.35, "trend": 14.86885, "fair_value": 13.965368, "relative_strength": -9.472793, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.080038, "energy": 14.108327, "activity_lines": [ 14.8543, 14.8683, 14.860688, 14.86592 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.6375, "volume": 16200, "typical_volume": 32195.5, "trend": 14.86365, "fair_value": 13.976445, "relative_strength": -10.278054, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.663384, "energy": 56.299361, "activity_lines": [ 14.775333, 14.827291, 14.840776, 14.850995 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.623, "volume": 22863, "typical_volume": 30914.55, "trend": 14.8558, "fair_value": 13.988333, "relative_strength": -10.184924, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.252175, "energy": 73.297474, "activity_lines": [ 14.708433, 14.786127, 14.820748, 14.835469 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.747, "volume": 65865, "typical_volume": 33778.4, "trend": 14.852667, "fair_value": 14.000628, "relative_strength": -10.349957, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.008332, "energy": 67.77873, "activity_lines": [ 14.704833, 14.770791, 14.813086, 14.828449 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }