{ "ticker": { "uuid": "70223a8d-aed6-4b17-95a2-06917e91572b", "symbol": "301166", "name": "Shanghai Universal Biotech Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.687, "architecture_energy": 39.318, "architecture_maturity": 52.508, "architecture_confidence": 82.444, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.8, "rotation_up": 23.49, "upward_expansion": 5.21, "deceleration": 60.43, "rotation_down": 46.79, "downward_expansion": 76.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.196, 26.274546, 27.255058, 28.209002 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 27.99, "trend_reference": 29.431489, "distance_from_trend": -0.048978, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.55783, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.084032, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.178833, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.121702, "excess_performance": -0.129102, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.048978, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043347, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.084032, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073954, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101788, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069382, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.121702, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.57252, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6800617, "relative_activity": 1.2058, "balance": 0.57252, "dry_up": 1.191194, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075264, "annualized_volatility": 0.30449, "from_high_reference": -0.214789, "from_low_reference": 0.17162 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.431489, "fair_value_reference": 30.55783, "structural_low": 23.889999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.023964, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.020371, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.192015, "worst_return": -0.179585, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.02391, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.015511, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.221186, "worst_return": -0.364089, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.022824, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.163375, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.075098, "worst_return": -0.39685, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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31.03642, "relative_strength": -22.776943, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.854786, "energy": 78.974032, "activity_lines": [ 26.620667, 27.432185, 28.630023, 29.374664 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 26.559999, "volume": 5967659, "typical_volume": 6113819.4, "trend": 29.833858, "fair_value": 30.943561, "relative_strength": -21.817132, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.991692, "energy": 71.657648, "activity_lines": [ 26.561333, 27.11333, 28.335164, 29.15521 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.780001, "volume": 7179043, "typical_volume": 6287101.55, "trend": 29.776474, "fair_value": 30.852112, "relative_strength": -12.768719, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.636633, "energy": 48.071944, "activity_lines": [ 26.639334, 26.903587, 28.090357, 28.958187 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.09, "volume": 6289092, "typical_volume": 6261759.15, "trend": 29.599082, "fair_value": 30.746422, "relative_strength": -21.145491, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.801363, "energy": 55.234324, "activity_lines": [ 25.848667, 26.290508, 27.617459, 28.591318 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.15, "volume": 6604218, "typical_volume": 6348700.05, "trend": 29.46681, "fair_value": 30.642258, "relative_strength": -15.729102, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.416337, "energy": 52.519859, "activity_lines": [ 25.534, 25.984, 27.284139, 28.30428 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.99, "volume": 6800617, "typical_volume": 5639923.3, "trend": 29.431489, "fair_value": 30.55783, "relative_strength": -10.178833, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.687296, "energy": 39.317596, "activity_lines": [ 26.196, 26.274546, 27.255058, 28.209002 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }