{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7025f858-6658-415e-8088-04bca489759f", "symbol": "TGH", "name": "Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 84.872, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.11, "architecture_energy": 75.53, "architecture_maturity": 8.951, "architecture_confidence": 67.152, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.36, "rotation_up": 76.01, "upward_expansion": 93.25, "deceleration": 42.28, "rotation_down": 9.26, "downward_expansion": 17.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.806667, 11.529091, 11.195238, 11.054512 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.6, "trend_reference": 10.923909, "distance_from_trend": 0.061891, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.209732, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.12186, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.931321, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.06422, "excess_performance": -0.128105, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061891, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000705, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.12186, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.116762, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.109313, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104378, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.06422, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.563107, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2400, "relative_activity": 0.738462, "balance": 1.563107, "dry_up": 1.215385, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041777, "annualized_volatility": 0.30065, "from_high_reference": -0.041322, "from_low_reference": 0.272437 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.923909, "fair_value_reference": 13.209732, "structural_low": 9.116363, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.155556, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.280027, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.155556, "worst_return": -0.155556, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.111111, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.292482, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.111111, "worst_return": -0.111111, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.148148, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.311514, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.148148, "worst_return": -0.148148, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.791971, "energy": 30.433982, "activity_lines": [ 10.626667, 10.707273, 10.719671, 10.78208 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 10.6, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7000.0, "trend": 10.856576, "fair_value": 13.53979, "relative_strength": -22.290805, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.334575, "energy": 26.108391, "activity_lines": [ 10.626667, 10.676364, 10.706255, 10.763603 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 10.6, "volume": 2500, "typical_volume": 6480.0, "trend": 10.846576, "fair_value": 13.492133, "relative_strength": -20.287533, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.814691, "energy": 28.171634, "activity_lines": [ 10.62, 10.650909, 10.694268, 10.74705 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 10.6, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5300.0, "trend": 10.833273, "fair_value": 13.445746, "relative_strength": -17.702057, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.830897, "energy": 34.484813, "activity_lines": [ 10.606667, 10.630909, 10.68371, 10.731142 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 11.1, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3835.0, "trend": 10.836636, "fair_value": 13.401929, "relative_strength": -16.758724, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.77127, "energy": 7.427429, "activity_lines": [ 10.766667, 10.707273, 10.722199, 10.74835 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.0, "volume": 4700, "typical_volume": 3570.0, "trend": 10.860091, "fair_value": 13.364516, "relative_strength": -10.019958, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 49.806389, "energy": 57.963384, "activity_lines": [ 11.2, 10.943636, 10.84545, 10.823406 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.4, "volume": 4200, "typical_volume": 3405.0, "trend": 10.863545, "fair_value": 13.323258, "relative_strength": -14.837328, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.666492, "energy": 56.246151, "activity_lines": [ 11.34, 11.054545, 10.905848, 10.858238 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.1, "volume": 6300, "typical_volume": 3455.0, "trend": 10.88703, "fair_value": 13.285851, "relative_strength": -9.455047, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.457426, "energy": 80.695853, "activity_lines": [ 11.66, 11.276364, 11.030532, 10.93801 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.0, "volume": 2900, "typical_volume": 3340.0, "trend": 10.907182, "fair_value": 13.247803, "relative_strength": -8.799611, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.545064, "energy": 81.473952, "activity_lines": [ 11.846667, 11.450909, 11.134788, 11.009814 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.6, "volume": 2400, "typical_volume": 3250.0, "trend": 10.923909, "fair_value": 13.209732, "relative_strength": -10.931321, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.109747, "energy": 75.529906, "activity_lines": [ 11.806667, 11.529091, 11.195238, 11.054512 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }