{ "ticker": { "uuid": "702c5258-f6a3-4f3f-894d-26d328d657d5", "symbol": "GPK", "name": "Graphic Packaging Holding Company", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 43.07, "architecture_energy": 38.467, "architecture_maturity": 22.005, "architecture_confidence": 54.577, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.64, "rotation_up": 57.75, "upward_expansion": 48.41, "deceleration": 29.25, "rotation_down": 23.38, "downward_expansion": 20.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.226667, 11.003507, 10.679613, 10.604713 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.1, "trend_reference": 10.999405, "distance_from_trend": 0.100059, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.903774, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.421157, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.155596, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.067911, "excess_performance": -0.193536, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.100059, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120094, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.421157, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098589, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.221556, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.214884, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.067911, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.532062, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30573936, "relative_activity": 0.98815, "balance": 1.532062, "dry_up": 0.868076, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086462, "annualized_volatility": 0.453354, "from_high_reference": -0.466744, "from_low_reference": 0.391159 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.999405, "fair_value_reference": 20.903774, "structural_low": 8.697784, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.027713, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.017303, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.109199, "worst_return": -0.148603, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.041496, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.029064, "regime_survival": 0.1, "best_return": 0.179009, "worst_return": -0.320104, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.070442, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.009947, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.103331, "worst_return": -0.449737, 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11.525196, "fair_value": 21.180911, "relative_strength": -37.071788, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.604257, "energy": 10.219568, "activity_lines": [ 10.656252, 10.611863, 10.29017, 10.643984 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.82, "volume": 22071021, "typical_volume": 33615711.7, "trend": 11.382328, "fair_value": 21.107313, "relative_strength": -31.484414, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.743623, "energy": 7.695638, "activity_lines": [ 10.7, 10.667042, 10.351707, 10.598488 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.02, "volume": 24546163, "typical_volume": 33144472.9, "trend": 11.253959, "fair_value": 21.031935, "relative_strength": -28.454973, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.022049, "energy": 5.824808, "activity_lines": [ 10.795333, 10.753212, 10.437783, 10.575112 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.73, "volume": 30243980, "typical_volume": 32838977.75, "trend": 11.117229, "fair_value": 20.961842, "relative_strength": -29.836803, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.447643, "energy": 6.403491, "activity_lines": [ 10.773333, 10.759823, 10.496071, 10.541308 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.1, "volume": 30573936, "typical_volume": 30940590.0, "trend": 10.999405, "fair_value": 20.903774, "relative_strength": -22.155596, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.070337, "energy": 38.467412, "activity_lines": [ 11.226667, 11.003507, 10.679613, 10.604713 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }