{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7040f48f-fad2-4163-a80c-8a6e063ff24f", "symbol": "6060", "name": "Ash-Sharqiyah Development Co.", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.774, "architecture_energy": 38.105, "architecture_maturity": 28.413, "architecture_confidence": 51.335, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.64, "rotation_up": 48.23, "upward_expansion": 71.57, "deceleration": 69.92, "rotation_down": 21.27, "downward_expansion": 9.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.361333, 14.300182, 13.615667, 13.360968 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.15, "trend_reference": 13.264333, "distance_from_trend": 0.066771, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.51859, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.192287, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.709499, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.018719, "excess_performance": 0.050548, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066771, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015658, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.192287, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136124, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007095, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.192063, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.018719, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.925404, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1242899, "relative_activity": 0.588425, "balance": 0.925404, "dry_up": 1.06997, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076108, "annualized_volatility": 0.335554, "from_high_reference": -0.191429, "from_low_reference": 0.230435 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.264333, "fair_value_reference": 17.51859, "structural_low": 11.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.056622, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.034417, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.173529, "worst_return": -0.156167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.106333, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.106217, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.085151, "worst_return": -0.222715, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.25745, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.13819, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.05919, "worst_return": -0.259095, "sufficient": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 1774120.5, "trend": 13.204333, "fair_value": 17.711282, "relative_strength": 8.099417, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 52.361512, "energy": 67.1256, "activity_lines": [ 14.462, 13.559455, 13.074524, 13.059247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.1, "volume": 3730388, "typical_volume": 1903100.1, "trend": 13.237, "fair_value": 17.662949, "relative_strength": 7.630579, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.019404, "energy": 72.764281, "activity_lines": [ 14.896, 13.937273, 13.291905, 13.181548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.33, "volume": 2717968, "typical_volume": 2015516.2, "trend": 13.251333, "fair_value": 17.61109, "relative_strength": 1.713243, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.113272, "energy": 80.042445, "activity_lines": [ 14.874, 14.123273, 13.423429, 13.252065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.04, "volume": 1348910, "typical_volume": 2055409.95, "trend": 13.250667, "fair_value": 17.565064, "relative_strength": 1.968027, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.742257, "energy": 58.340826, "activity_lines": [ 14.621333, 14.218727, 13.518714, 13.302946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.15, "volume": 1242899, "typical_volume": 2112247.1, "trend": 13.264333, "fair_value": 17.51859, "relative_strength": 0.709499, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.774091, "energy": 38.105145, "activity_lines": [ 14.361333, 14.300182, 13.615667, 13.360968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }