{ "ticker": { "uuid": "70495b31-09be-4b44-b35f-f44621fe9adb", "symbol": "PK", "name": "Patkol Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.783, "architecture_energy": 50.758, "architecture_maturity": 30.971, "architecture_confidence": 75.886, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.5, "rotation_up": 63.43, "upward_expansion": 86.2, "deceleration": 43.65, "rotation_down": 12.23, "downward_expansion": 10.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.488, 0.479273, 0.469333, 0.462774 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.49, "trend_reference": 0.461333, "distance_from_trend": 0.062139, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.697885, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.297878, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.140008, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.139535, "excess_performance": -0.05279, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062139, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052704, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.297878, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131311, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1814, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.145284, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.139535, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.236018, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5894500, "relative_activity": 0.62237, "balance": 5.236018, "dry_up": 0.72559, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092622, "annualized_volatility": 0.597658, "from_high_reference": -0.309859, "from_low_reference": 0.324324 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.461333, "fair_value_reference": 0.697885, "structural_low": 0.37, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.046667, "positive_rate": 0.391304, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": -0.036675, "regime_survival": 0.565217, "best_return": 0.087719, "worst_return": -0.233333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.132246, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.141971, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.016666, "worst_return": -0.375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.222366, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.175852, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.05378, "worst_return": -0.475, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.2875, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.173438, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.181822, "worst_return": -0.535714, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-09-08", "end": "2023-09-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05298, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2023-10-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.255474, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.018519, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.134615, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.211268, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.180723, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.169231, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2875, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043478, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.017544, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.166667, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.43, "volume": 203300, "typical_volume": 249300.0, "trend": 1.441667, "fair_value": 1.937385, "relative_strength": -7.290856, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.787009, "energy": 22.855219, "activity_lines": [ 0.476667, 0.464182, 0.460333, 0.458473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.48, "volume": 1744900, "typical_volume": 9296835.0, "trend": 0.464333, "fair_value": 0.709551, "relative_strength": -22.887753, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.768031, "energy": 29.00923, "activity_lines": [ 0.48, 0.469273, 0.463095, 0.459376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.49, "volume": 692200, "typical_volume": 9305430.0, "trend": 0.463, "fair_value": 0.703718, "relative_strength": -19.545094, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.722609, "energy": 34.333933, "activity_lines": [ 0.485333, 0.475091, 0.466429, 0.461032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.49, "volume": 5894500, "typical_volume": 9471050.0, "trend": 0.461333, "fair_value": 0.697885, "relative_strength": -18.140008, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.783331, "energy": 50.758235, "activity_lines": [ 0.488, 0.479273, 0.469333, 0.462774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }