{ "ticker": { "uuid": "704b1b5b-5452-4480-8efc-d86322d5eb5d", "symbol": "ARVINDFASN", "name": "Arvind Fashions Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 80.614, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.824, "architecture_energy": 14.052, "architecture_maturity": 36.276, "architecture_confidence": 75.185, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.78, "rotation_up": 22.25, "upward_expansion": 50.37, "deceleration": 88.19, "rotation_down": 28.8, "downward_expansion": 18.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 457.605408, 461.652345, 460.16964, 454.798 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 458.799988, "trend_reference": 451.572986, "distance_from_trend": 0.016004, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 465.361514, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.0141, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.249485, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.051576, "excess_performance": -0.007867, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.016004, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027422, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.0141, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028292, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032495, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01787, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.051576, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.473922, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 858415, "relative_activity": 0.596016, "balance": 0.473922, "dry_up": 1.257206, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059338, "annualized_volatility": 0.367373, "from_high_reference": -0.207599, "from_low_reference": 0.252867 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 451.572986, "fair_value_reference": 465.361514, "structural_low": 366.200012, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.003403, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004907, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.329177, "worst_return": -0.146392, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.040037, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.037024, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 1.072631, "worst_return": -0.142493, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.096786, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.080654, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.712594, "worst_return": -0.082337, "sufficient": 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"2026-07-31", "close": 448.433084, "volume": 931369, "typical_volume": 1440251.6, "trend": 452.12632, "fair_value": 464.420146, "relative_strength": -4.928123, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.532029, "energy": 12.420277, "activity_lines": [ 458.458051, 462.614885, 459.566735, 454.367441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 458.799988, "volume": 858415, "typical_volume": 1440255.9, "trend": 451.572986, "fair_value": 465.361514, "relative_strength": -3.249485, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.824155, "energy": 14.052125, "activity_lines": [ 457.605408, 461.652345, 460.16964, 454.798 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }