{ "ticker": { "uuid": "70516443-1c77-4ad0-a93c-dc34cd505afb", "symbol": "FABG", "name": "Fabege AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.389, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.626, "architecture_energy": 31.786, "architecture_maturity": 43.549, "architecture_confidence": 86.194, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.04, "rotation_up": 21.03, "upward_expansion": 3.33, "deceleration": 52.13, "rotation_down": 43.27, "downward_expansion": 72.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 75.006666, 75.0119, 75.95687, 76.686963 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 76.25, "trend_reference": 77.971007, "distance_from_trend": -0.022072, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 82.777585, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.078857, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.385102, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.089219, "excess_performance": -0.150713, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022072, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023678, "read": "Falling" 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"structural_low": 72.000627, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -7.5e-05, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.006347, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.136307, "worst_return": -0.239344, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.010334, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.028405, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.350239, "worst_return": -0.242227, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.023175, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.001273, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.158127, "worst_return": -0.226503, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 75.650002, "volume": 2041927, "typical_volume": 2157640.1, "trend": 78.808988, "fair_value": 83.019969, "relative_strength": -13.577738, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.223968, "energy": 50.47428, "activity_lines": [ 75.322384, 76.025993, 76.773607, 77.661719 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 74.300003, "volume": 1135369, "typical_volume": 2054724.0, "trend": 78.592349, "fair_value": 82.968088, "relative_strength": -13.809846, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.66863, "energy": 42.426466, "activity_lines": [ 75.044467, 75.576562, 76.473902, 77.370817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 73.599998, "volume": 1320566, "typical_volume": 1989511.15, "trend": 78.365538, "fair_value": 82.888521, "relative_strength": -15.522788, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.768919, "energy": 39.393294, "activity_lines": [ 74.619905, 75.088038, 76.151439, 77.04873 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 74.699997, "volume": 1441018, "typical_volume": 1868677.3, "trend": 78.191847, "fair_value": 82.81925, "relative_strength": -14.967216, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.956928, "energy": 36.176078, "activity_lines": [ 74.569615, 74.865878, 75.969629, 76.812243 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 76.25, "volume": 1355628, "typical_volume": 1828332.4, "trend": 77.971007, "fair_value": 82.777585, "relative_strength": -14.385102, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.626419, "energy": 31.785734, "activity_lines": [ 75.006666, 75.0119, 75.95687, 76.686963 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }