{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7060158c-0e4c-4a9b-b89e-1112479fadbe", "symbol": "DLRTRAC15", "name": "DLRTRAC 15", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 61.367, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -8.583, "architecture_energy": 10.119, "architecture_maturity": 6.362, "architecture_confidence": 74.577, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.21, "rotation_up": 40.19, "upward_expansion": 34.5, "deceleration": 31.97, "rotation_down": 25.47, "downward_expansion": 20.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.202, 18.207818, 18.176952, 18.190884 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 18.1, "trend_reference": 18.1823, "distance_from_trend": -0.004526, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.294006, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.010605, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.813741, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.005556, "excess_performance": 0.060222, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004526, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006593, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.010605, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000666, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.038137, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093942, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.005556, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.24322, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 102508, "relative_activity": 3.394647, "balance": 0.24322, "dry_up": 2.882766, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00561, "annualized_volatility": 0.067721, "from_high_reference": -0.047368, "from_low_reference": 0.052326 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.1823, "fair_value_reference": 18.294006, "structural_low": 17.799999, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.002798, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.015181, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.01425, "worst_return": -0.021669, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.014603, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.024733, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.006805, "worst_return": -0.057358, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.051188, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.136969, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.041601, "worst_return": -0.060776, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 18.201633, "fair_value": 18.253641, "relative_strength": -3.193736, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.657252, "energy": 40.099329, "activity_lines": [ 18.254, 18.204909, 18.189609, 18.19249 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.27, "volume": 15385, "typical_volume": 14965.65, "trend": 18.200966, "fair_value": 18.269064, "relative_strength": -2.8716, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.864236, "energy": 40.858532, "activity_lines": [ 18.271333, 18.224364, 18.191852, 18.196901 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.200001, "volume": 222491, "typical_volume": 25250.15, "trend": 18.1923, "fair_value": 18.281692, "relative_strength": -3.632769, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.970521, "energy": 38.736581, "activity_lines": [ 18.253334, 18.225637, 18.18819, 18.196839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.1, "volume": 102508, "typical_volume": 30196.95, "trend": 18.1823, "fair_value": 18.294006, "relative_strength": -3.813741, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.583203, "energy": 10.118708, "activity_lines": [ 18.202, 18.207818, 18.176952, 18.190884 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }