{ "ticker": { "uuid": "70615309-a315-46d5-b7c5-6675de94035f", "symbol": "002401", "name": "COSCO SHIPPING Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.92, "architecture_energy": 52.402, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.324, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.78, "rotation_up": 27.76, "upward_expansion": 8.88, "deceleration": 60.73, "rotation_down": 50.52, "downward_expansion": 82.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.920667, 11.945091, 12.636615, 13.330773 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.32, "trend_reference": 14.294056, "distance_from_trend": -0.138103, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.222506, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.240561, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.038986, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.242096, "excess_performance": -0.249496, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.138103, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090079, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.240561, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129193, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.24039, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016505, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.242096, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.520399, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22875107, "relative_activity": 1.35188, "balance": 0.520399, "dry_up": 1.218769, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070319, "annualized_volatility": 0.285592, "from_high_reference": -0.439882, "from_low_reference": 0.110911 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.294056, "fair_value_reference": 16.222506, "structural_low": 11.09, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.02133, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.016464, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.392269, "worst_return": -0.132076, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.019868, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.001674, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.528169, "worst_return": -0.196678, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.104725, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.028049, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.247038, "worst_return": -0.249661, 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"activity_lines": [ 11.502667, 11.935091, 12.877937, 13.613873 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.24, "volume": 22651820, "typical_volume": 16826373.6, "trend": 14.413261, "fair_value": 16.285101, "relative_strength": -21.915851, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.407984, "energy": 59.782297, "activity_lines": [ 11.716, 11.916, 12.74564, 13.465822 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.32, "volume": 22875107, "typical_volume": 16920962.95, "trend": 14.294056, "fair_value": 16.222506, "relative_strength": -24.038986, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.920444, "energy": 52.402374, "activity_lines": [ 11.920667, 11.945091, 12.636615, 13.330773 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }