{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7063861a-0d6e-4680-905a-c88f8f7143ee", "symbol": "BCYC", "name": "Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.426, "architecture_energy": 46.116, "architecture_maturity": 92.735, "architecture_confidence": 94.828, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.81, "rotation_up": 21.72, "upward_expansion": 6.19, "deceleration": 51.18, "rotation_down": 52.58, "downward_expansion": 77.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.048667, 4.105091, 4.279286, 4.467763 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.17, "trend_reference": 4.84, "distance_from_trend": -0.13843, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.591346, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.693187, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.655784, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.263251, "excess_performance": -0.450705, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.13843, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156941, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.693187, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007036, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.386558, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031791, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.263251, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.709361, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1321481, "relative_activity": 0.620614, "balance": 0.709361, "dry_up": 0.680289, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088574, "annualized_volatility": 0.477548, "from_high_reference": -0.54472, "from_low_reference": 0.113485 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.84, "fair_value_reference": 13.591346, "structural_low": 3.745, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.052402, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.060789, "regime_survival": 0.878788, "best_return": 0.26426, "worst_return": -0.459484, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.073249, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.242509, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.329903, "worst_return": -0.597376, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.245941, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.226937, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.369743, "worst_return": -0.49455, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -38.878938, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.508223, "energy": 37.079282, "activity_lines": [ 4.262667, 4.253818, 4.434905, 4.671204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.87, "volume": 1457057, "typical_volume": 2249442.55, "trend": 5.016333, "fair_value": 13.834551, "relative_strength": -41.800716, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.70925, "energy": 46.545603, "activity_lines": [ 4.148, 4.175455, 4.368143, 4.590903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.86, "volume": 1731946, "typical_volume": 2231313.45, "trend": 4.922333, "fair_value": 13.708846, "relative_strength": -41.237157, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.497564, "energy": 51.15284, "activity_lines": [ 4.038667, 4.105818, 4.306762, 4.516301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.17, "volume": 1321481, "typical_volume": 2129311.3, "trend": 4.84, "fair_value": 13.591346, "relative_strength": -38.655784, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.426007, "energy": 46.11641, "activity_lines": [ 4.048667, 4.105091, 4.279286, 4.467763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }