{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7065c4a8-09e9-400b-beb6-bec7091f2396", "symbol": "LBTYB", "name": "Liberty Global PLC Class B", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.757, "architecture_energy": 34.316, "architecture_maturity": 13.333, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.58, "rotation_up": 17.9, "upward_expansion": 4.32, "deceleration": 47.73, "rotation_down": 52.09, "downward_expansion": 77.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.283333, 12.465091, 13.328714, 13.575269 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.7, "trend_reference": 13.607167, "distance_from_trend": -0.066668, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.559346, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.127708, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.989768, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.294836, "excess_performance": -0.48229, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.066668, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045886, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.127708, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.203058, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119898, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.257261, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.294836, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.230081, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4633, "relative_activity": 0.117844, "balance": 0.230081, "dry_up": 0.316923, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.158929, "annualized_volatility": 0.513962, "from_high_reference": -0.56222, "from_low_reference": 0.245098 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.607167, "fair_value_reference": 14.559346, "structural_low": 10.54, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.008929, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.015329, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.078847, "worst_return": -0.116883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.09741, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.149469, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.027389, "worst_return": -0.11262, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.078084, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.063612, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.206876, "worst_return": -0.249201, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.298104, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.324394, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.021207, "worst_return": -0.358974, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.077348, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050982, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03187, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.070288, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.227116, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013721, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.095607, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.003691, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071845, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.222654, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.143382, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058333, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 18.48, "volume": 1192, "typical_volume": 1050.05, "trend": 19.10744, "fair_value": 23.513204, "relative_strength": -17.398685, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.19702, "energy": 18.834192, "activity_lines": [ 18.51, 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"stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.911527, "energy": 22.606046, "activity_lines": [ 13.346667, 14.069636, 14.32419, 14.021951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 13.2, "volume": 20311, "typical_volume": 47506.05, "trend": 13.433317, "fair_value": 14.75941, "relative_strength": -7.563621, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.163488, "energy": 21.882217, "activity_lines": [ 13.205333, 13.778727, 14.227929, 14.011717 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.65, "volume": 49117, "typical_volume": 46070.8, "trend": 13.44565, "fair_value": 14.719153, "relative_strength": -19.771501, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.598625, "energy": 39.198148, "activity_lines": [ 12.634, 13.281455, 13.992381, 13.896665 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.0, "volume": 28118, "typical_volume": 46255.9, "trend": 13.478983, "fair_value": 14.67723, "relative_strength": -13.729988, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.26079, "energy": 40.101178, "activity_lines": [ 12.336, 12.935818, 13.797333, 13.803397 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.1, "volume": 7380, "typical_volume": 43643.9, "trend": 13.5115, "fair_value": 14.63941, "relative_strength": -11.605903, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.780881, "energy": 40.237079, "activity_lines": [ 12.178, 12.682, 13.615238, 13.71443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.2, "volume": 9708, "typical_volume": 40449.7, "trend": 13.5455, "fair_value": 14.596781, "relative_strength": -11.267523, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.674378, "energy": 39.216765, "activity_lines": [ 12.126667, 12.506364, 13.447571, 13.629817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.7, "volume": 4633, "typical_volume": 39314.7, "trend": 13.607167, "fair_value": 14.559346, "relative_strength": -11.989768, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.756786, "energy": 34.316309, "activity_lines": [ 12.283333, 12.465091, 13.328714, 13.575269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }