{ "ticker": { "uuid": "706e4bd3-2210-488b-b8cf-be2ebfd053f9", "symbol": "JRWE", "name": "JPM All Country Research Enhanced Index Equity Active UCITS ETF - EUR Hedged (acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 52.873, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.585, "architecture_energy": 51.01, "architecture_maturity": 73.212, "architecture_confidence": 54.224, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.07, "rotation_up": 47.32, "upward_expansion": 77.65, "deceleration": 88.55, "rotation_down": 29.61, "downward_expansion": 13.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.74, 29.732, 29.474691, 28.998656 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 29.93, "trend_reference": 28.433167, "distance_from_trend": 0.052644, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.672093, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.165857, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.007418, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.084617, "excess_performance": -0.086275, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052644, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039832, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.165857, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004623, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.060074, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053793, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.084617, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.349558, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4750, "relative_activity": 0.575175, "balance": 0.349558, "dry_up": 0.734105, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015318, "annualized_volatility": 0.14409, "from_high_reference": -0.002666, "from_low_reference": 0.216419 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.433167, "fair_value_reference": 25.672093, "structural_low": 25.790001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.014123, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.003648, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.014123, "worst_return": 0.014123, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018547, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 23.684999, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-27", "close": 23.684999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-03", 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null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 29.955, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 29.385, "volume": 1816, "typical_volume": 6158.2, "trend": 27.783333, "fair_value": 25.364563, "relative_strength": -4.054965, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.009258, "energy": 63.571416, "activity_lines": [ 29.608667, 29.485455, 28.753405, 28.34028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 29.945, "volume": 5450, "typical_volume": 6411.6, "trend": 27.904833, "fair_value": 25.421111, "relative_strength": -4.945058, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.270885, "energy": 65.49289, "activity_lines": [ 29.714, 29.607909, 28.915334, 28.479742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 29.940001, "volume": 17083, "typical_volume": 7265.75, "trend": 28.026167, "fair_value": 25.47622, "relative_strength": -4.462759, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.071194, "energy": 66.075712, "activity_lines": [ 29.805667, 29.699182, 29.065643, 28.611043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.485001, "volume": 16200, "typical_volume": 7945.2, "trend": 28.132333, "fair_value": 25.524518, "relative_strength": -4.46475, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.780113, "energy": 57.943395, "activity_lines": [ 29.716334, 29.680273, 29.1615, 28.705162 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.799999, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 7960.2, "trend": 28.249, "fair_value": 25.575417, "relative_strength": -3.211897, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.122715, "energy": 60.250242, "activity_lines": [ 29.735667, 29.713818, 29.280024, 28.812753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.535, "volume": 3000, "typical_volume": 8020.85, "trend": 28.3345, "fair_value": 25.622, "relative_strength": -4.608039, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.961067, "energy": 45.280934, "activity_lines": [ 29.677, 29.687455, 29.364476, 28.895721 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.93, "volume": 4750, "typical_volume": 8258.35, "trend": 28.433167, "fair_value": 25.672093, "relative_strength": -6.007418, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.584927, "energy": 51.00973, "activity_lines": [ 29.74, 29.732, 29.474691, 28.998656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }