{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "707559fa-100e-4cb1-9fad-88a706a77f35",
    "symbol": "KMD",
    "name": "KMD Brands Limited",
    "exchange": "NZE",
    "country": "NZ",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^NZ50",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 92.747,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -59.225,
    "architecture_energy": 49.143,
    "architecture_maturity": 100.0,
    "architecture_confidence": 86.721,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 18.11,
        "rotation_up": 28.79,
        "upward_expansion": 7.57,
        "deceleration": 60.78,
        "rotation_down": 48.74,
        "downward_expansion": 80.9
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        1.765667,
        1.789727,
        1.794567,
        2.024446
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 1.8,
    "trend_reference": 2.473269,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.272218,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 6.149186,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.707278,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -44.989819,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.529272,
    "excess_performance": -0.557546,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.272218,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.239974,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.707278,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.070819,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.449898,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.126559,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.529272,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.107742,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 180475,
      "relative_activity": 0.598085,
      "balance": 1.107742,
      "dry_up": 0.486196,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.103632,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.742944,
      "from_high_reference": -0.641685,
      "from_low_reference": 0.2
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 2.473269,
      "fair_value_reference": 6.149186,
      "structural_low": 1.5,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 39,
        "median_return": -0.018518,
        "positive_rate": 0.307692,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.615385,
        "median_excess_return": -0.031681,
        "regime_survival": 0.897436,
        "best_return": 0.375,
        "worst_return": -0.48921,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": -0.122741,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
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        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.153846,
        "worst_return": -0.418267,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.177134,
        "positive_rate": 0.285714,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
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        "worst_return": -0.390411,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "worst_return": -0.557561,
        "sufficient": false
      }
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        "regime": "balance",
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      {
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 294153.25,
        "trend": 2.715311,
        "fair_value": 6.367111,
        "relative_strength": -49.758497,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -71.997822,
        "energy": 79.314677,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.756333,
          1.820818,
          1.853266,
          2.190503
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 1.725,
        "volume": 169323,
        "typical_volume": 298420.95,
        "trend": 2.637851,
        "fair_value": 6.292891,
        "relative_strength": -48.440663,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -66.005405,
        "energy": 79.208345,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.729667,
          1.803545,
          1.819951,
          2.126612
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 1.81,
        "volume": 156835,
        "typical_volume": 304380.75,
        "trend": 2.555726,
        "fair_value": 6.220144,
        "relative_strength": -44.9295,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -63.691192,
        "energy": 57.858689,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.749667,
          1.799455,
          1.803654,
          2.073202
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 1.8,
        "volume": 180475,
        "typical_volume": 301754.85,
        "trend": 2.473269,
        "fair_value": 6.149186,
        "relative_strength": -44.989819,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -59.225439,
        "energy": 49.142996,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.765667,
          1.789727,
          1.794567,
          2.024446
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}