{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7078040c-4e2a-4ee5-9dd0-93becb9c4b5b", "symbol": "IBTO", "name": "ISHARES IBONDS DEC 2033 TERM TREASURY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 60.699, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.724, "architecture_energy": 57.263, "architecture_maturity": 24.738, "architecture_confidence": 90.464, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.91, "rotation_up": 13.64, "upward_expansion": 12.06, "deceleration": 39.23, "rotation_down": 65.18, "downward_expansion": 87.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.780978, 23.846956, 23.905778, 23.975279 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 23.84, "trend_reference": 24.061974, "distance_from_trend": -0.009225, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.959442, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.038353, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.554447, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.01504, "excess_performance": -0.202494, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009225, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003799, "read": "Falling" 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.708723, "volume": 396054, "typical_volume": 341262.4, "trend": 24.087392, "fair_value": 22.933705, "relative_strength": -9.912263, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.274676, "energy": 54.04961, "activity_lines": [ 23.84361, 23.897401, 23.947363, 24.015702 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.693578, "volume": 1477877, "typical_volume": 398295.25, "trend": 24.072734, "fair_value": 22.945431, "relative_strength": -10.082564, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.511321, "energy": 64.859531, "activity_lines": [ 23.772737, 23.85771, 23.918477, 23.990294 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.84, "volume": 823143, "typical_volume": 418190.15, "trend": 24.061974, "fair_value": 22.959442, "relative_strength": -13.554447, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.723684, "energy": 57.262613, "activity_lines": [ 23.780978, 23.846956, 23.905778, 23.975279 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }