{ "ticker": { "uuid": "70785004-46a3-450a-9f64-b7d1d4d7c3b5", "symbol": "300040", "name": "Harbin Jiuzhou Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.627, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.397, "architecture_energy": 21.634, "architecture_maturity": 48.601, "architecture_confidence": 74.335, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.39, "rotation_up": 24.5, "upward_expansion": 14.09, "deceleration": 46.68, "rotation_down": 31.83, "downward_expansion": 61.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.231333, 6.121744, 6.473945, 6.724596 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.48, "trend_reference": 6.906862, "distance_from_trend": -0.061803, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.218529, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.042047, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.608555, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.018182, "excess_performance": -0.025582, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061803, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007349, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.042047, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167538, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086086, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064642, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.018182, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.600308, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 245531892, "relative_activity": 0.912055, "balance": 2.600308, "dry_up": 1.386779, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.141446, "annualized_volatility": 0.591343, "from_high_reference": -0.317176, "from_low_reference": 0.273084 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.906862, "fair_value_reference": 6.218529, "structural_low": 5.09, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.006163, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.014593, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.400486, "worst_return": -0.185958, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.036204, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.007727, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.585746, "worst_return": -0.231737, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.018381, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.010616, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.173985, "worst_return": -0.11223, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"direction": -64.07476, "energy": 73.391055, "activity_lines": [ 5.745333, 6.1677, 6.645172, 6.827795 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.27, "volume": 681217491, "typical_volume": 292892602.35, "trend": 6.886863, "fair_value": 6.214075, "relative_strength": -9.66919, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.882514, "energy": 53.004728, "activity_lines": [ 5.887333, 6.118133, 6.573144, 6.788363 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.31, "volume": 409161829, "typical_volume": 285988914.9, "trend": 6.891529, "fair_value": 6.21513, "relative_strength": -6.987745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.037036, "energy": 35.606093, "activity_lines": [ 6.051333, 6.095783, 6.511973, 6.751146 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.48, "volume": 245531892, "typical_volume": 269207316.1, "trend": 6.906862, "fair_value": 6.218529, "relative_strength": -8.608555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.396865, "energy": 21.634443, "activity_lines": [ 6.231333, 6.121744, 6.473945, 6.724596 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }