{ "ticker": { "uuid": "70796929-e3c2-4e7e-830a-00277fb7d6eb", "symbol": "EL4S", "name": "Deka Deutsche B\u00f6rse EUROGOV Germany 1-3 UCITS ETF", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 86.434, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -0.929, "architecture_energy": 7.54, "architecture_maturity": 36.971, "architecture_confidence": 79.984, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 69.37, "rotation_up": 30.25, "upward_expansion": 43.94, "deceleration": 39.44, "rotation_down": 27.83, "downward_expansion": 33.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 76.079602, 76.06593, 76.062078, 76.055153 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 76.092003, "trend_reference": 76.08054, "distance_from_trend": 0.000151, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 74.554551, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.020622, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.63449, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.003803, "excess_performance": -0.038476, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000151, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 7e-05, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.020622, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005786, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.066345, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035314, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.003803, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.407827, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 806, "relative_activity": 0.352319, "balance": 1.407827, "dry_up": 0.722778, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.001868, "annualized_volatility": 0.014656, "from_high_reference": -0.004971, "from_low_reference": 0.005875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 76.08054, "fair_value_reference": 74.554551, "structural_low": 75.647596, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.000214, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.006611, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.003442, "worst_return": -0.01064, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.001282, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.038572, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.005417, "worst_return": -0.023585, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.011658, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.02768, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.004768, "worst_return": -0.028084, "sufficient": false 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"relative_strength": -7.462343, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.285226, "energy": 18.303631, "activity_lines": [ 76.032802, 76.049347, 76.051445, 76.053684 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 76.096001, "volume": 1377, "typical_volume": 2451.25, "trend": 76.08219, "fair_value": 74.525009, "relative_strength": -7.814629, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.81913, "energy": 6.715437, "activity_lines": [ 76.057202, 76.059851, 76.057816, 76.05452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 76.092003, "volume": 806, "typical_volume": 2287.7, "trend": 76.08054, "fair_value": 74.554551, "relative_strength": -6.63449, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.929278, "energy": 7.540077, "activity_lines": [ 76.079602, 76.06593, 76.062078, 76.055153 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }