{ "ticker": { "uuid": "70811dbf-a181-476a-9aa1-694e5c8dafea", "symbol": "TAM", "name": "Tanami Gold NL", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.662, "architecture_energy": 81.967, "architecture_maturity": 61.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.67, "rotation_up": 29.9, "upward_expansion": 20.65, "deceleration": 37.79, "rotation_down": 53.87, "downward_expansion": 93.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.057, 0.057527, 0.062288, 0.070295 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.058, "trend_reference": 0.079712, "distance_from_trend": -0.27238, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.048621, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.192903, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.97001, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.414141, "excess_performance": -0.477847, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.27238, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060502, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.192903, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.374113, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.2597, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.269353, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.414141, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.216626, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4314795, "relative_activity": 1.043879, "balance": 0.216626, "dry_up": 0.605607, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070765, "annualized_volatility": 0.673598, "from_high_reference": -0.57037, "from_low_reference": 0.115385 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.079712, "fair_value_reference": 0.048621, "structural_low": 0.056, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.022482, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.558824, "median_excess_return": -0.009738, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.117647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.02, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021752, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.633333, "worst_return": -0.222222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.058824, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.089527, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.965517, "worst_return": -0.193548, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.072516, "energy": 82.531694, "activity_lines": [ 0.0578, 0.0586, 0.067227, 0.075015 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.057, "volume": 2496155, "typical_volume": 4594983.65, "trend": 0.081379, "fair_value": 0.04839, "relative_strength": -23.288055, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.299018, "energy": 71.006729, "activity_lines": [ 0.057467, 0.058145, 0.065263, 0.073389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.056, "volume": 732151, "typical_volume": 4339490.85, "trend": 0.080579, "fair_value": 0.048499, "relative_strength": -26.293532, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.42393, "energy": 70.002121, "activity_lines": [ 0.056867, 0.0576, 0.063528, 0.071751 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.058, "volume": 4314795, "typical_volume": 4133425.85, "trend": 0.079712, "fair_value": 0.048621, "relative_strength": -25.97001, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.662133, "energy": 81.966767, "activity_lines": [ 0.057, 0.057527, 0.062288, 0.070295 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }