{ "ticker": { "uuid": "708c7779-e70b-48c7-9678-b77a197bdf22", "symbol": "FIE", "name": "Fielmann Group AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 58.369, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.462, "architecture_energy": 51.185, "architecture_maturity": 9.557, "architecture_confidence": 89.004, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.46, "rotation_up": 15.12, "upward_expansion": 10.09, "deceleration": 40.71, "rotation_down": 56.62, "downward_expansion": 81.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.896667, 41.2193, 42.041456, 42.534301 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 42.049999, "trend_reference": 42.884481, "distance_from_trend": -0.019459, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 44.351991, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.051903, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.915072, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.001188, "excess_performance": -0.175434, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019459, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014905, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.051903, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003847, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.249151, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022474, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.001188, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.086667, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 3.086667, "dry_up": 3.107667, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049438, "annualized_volatility": 0.308758, "from_high_reference": -0.258377, "from_low_reference": 0.080977 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.884481, "fair_value_reference": 44.351991, "structural_low": 38.900002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.002095, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.021042, "regime_survival": 0.766667, "best_return": 0.155249, "worst_return": -0.173699, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.015101, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.063608, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.179891, "worst_return": -0.212109, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.025085, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.112551, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.305825, "worst_return": -0.291659, "sufficient": 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065534, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055236, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.067172, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.076074, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.093885, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", 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42.6429, 42.963985 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.25, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 19.1, "trend": 43.022814, "fair_value": 44.378907, "relative_strength": -29.632153, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.670886, "energy": 69.632239, "activity_lines": [ 40.425246, 41.32146, 42.275355, 42.712836 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.150002, "volume": 231, "typical_volume": 30.65, "trend": 42.944481, "fair_value": 44.364468, "relative_strength": -25.24114, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.591814, "energy": 63.894536, "activity_lines": [ 40.473717, 41.163562, 42.111382, 42.59201 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.049999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 30.65, "trend": 42.884481, "fair_value": 44.351991, "relative_strength": -24.915072, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.461684, "energy": 51.185429, "activity_lines": [ 40.896667, 41.2193, 42.041456, 42.534301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }