{ "ticker": { "uuid": "708fb5ed-7381-40b9-9364-71a22119cd50", "symbol": "JOUT", "name": "Johnson Outdoors Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.64, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 2.448, "architecture_energy": 9.155, "architecture_maturity": 33.284, "architecture_confidence": 80.476, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 72.74, "rotation_up": 45.96, "upward_expansion": 29.64, "deceleration": 36.66, "rotation_down": 20.63, "downward_expansion": 23.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.876726, 46.140022, 46.309338, 46.568386 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 48.22, "trend_reference": 46.711167, "distance_from_trend": 0.032301, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.60276, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.249133, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.289421, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.035473, "excess_performance": -0.151981, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032301, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03632, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.249133, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058944, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.042894, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113908, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.035473, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.339143, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 238643, "relative_activity": 0.67424, "balance": 2.339143, "dry_up": 0.648832, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085749, "annualized_volatility": 0.436224, "from_high_reference": -0.099365, "from_low_reference": 0.375939 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.711167, "fair_value_reference": 38.60276, "structural_low": 38.01, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.031582, "positive_rate": 0.153846, "directional_follow_through": 0.153846, "median_excess_return": -0.052838, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.037607, "worst_return": -0.224455, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.149381, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.173947, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": -0.036229, "worst_return": -0.289655, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.117891, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.168486, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.323847, "worst_return": -0.188178, "sufficient": false 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46.907697, 46.778591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 43.176266, "volume": 269690, "typical_volume": 370152.1, "trend": 46.148646, "fair_value": 38.818653, "relative_strength": -12.195222, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.331131, "energy": 15.682847, "activity_lines": [ 45.199727, 45.280264, 46.517708, 46.592803 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 43.940887, "volume": 297704, "typical_volume": 374127.2, "trend": 46.230964, "fair_value": 38.769048, "relative_strength": -12.359179, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.446095, "energy": 18.27235, "activity_lines": [ 44.705508, 44.886558, 46.229794, 46.450367 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 46.25, "volume": 219322, "typical_volume": 366253.95, "trend": 46.327461, "fair_value": 38.721378, "relative_strength": -4.080295, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.584613, "energy": 16.968198, "activity_lines": [ 45.040934, 45.083583, 46.19143, 46.451595 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.99, "volume": 168916, "typical_volume": 358708.65, "trend": 46.420881, "fair_value": 38.673206, "relative_strength": -3.343467, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.2804, "energy": 16.377077, "activity_lines": [ 45.304565, 45.327063, 46.137434, 46.429824 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.91, "volume": 291720, "typical_volume": 355200.45, "trend": 46.561404, "fair_value": 38.6346, "relative_strength": -2.0716, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.547776, "energy": 12.562872, "activity_lines": [ 45.887869, 45.644906, 46.168513, 46.46138 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.22, "volume": 238643, "typical_volume": 353943.9, "trend": 46.711167, "fair_value": 38.60276, "relative_strength": -4.289421, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.448179, "energy": 9.154629, "activity_lines": [ 46.876726, 46.140022, 46.309338, 46.568386 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }