{ "ticker": { "uuid": "708fe549-5279-474e-816b-4926c5f53fdb", "symbol": "SFT", "name": "SoftBank Group Corp.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 7.172, "architecture_energy": 22.805, "architecture_maturity": 75.844, "architecture_confidence": 70.906, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.37, "rotation_up": 15.79, "upward_expansion": 46.87, "deceleration": 87.79, "rotation_down": 39.67, "downward_expansion": 27.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.694666, 31.626545, 32.690309, 29.937816 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 30.504999, "trend_reference": 26.015255, "distance_from_trend": 0.172581, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.942657, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.068093, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 12.203145, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.813048, "excess_performance": 0.638801, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.172581, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.245409, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.068093, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.654985, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.122031, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.668228, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.813048, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.085317, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13, "relative_activity": 0.226876, "balance": 0.085317, "dry_up": 0.056719, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.138477, "annualized_volatility": 0.856952, "from_high_reference": -0.277903, "from_low_reference": 1.621266 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.015255, "fair_value_reference": 9.942657, "structural_low": 13.743056, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.041655, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.026751, "regime_survival": 0.388889, "best_return": 1.731349, "worst_return": -0.097561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.680288, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": 0.643425, "regime_survival": 0.181818, "best_return": 1.811172, "worst_return": -0.193324, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 1.52953, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 1.428441, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 2.277953, "worst_return": 0.270826, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 3.969717, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 3.762993, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 6.079755, "worst_return": 1.609821, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071216, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009204, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.945711, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.903641, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.002622, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.745205, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.929214, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06372, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.133137, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", 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"up", "direction": 74.763464, "energy": 76.184993, "activity_lines": [ 37.488666, 34.159818, 27.673651, 24.601985 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 37.77, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 163.8, "trend": 22.03677, "fair_value": 8.315452, "relative_strength": 65.709823, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.60079, "energy": 67.011032, "activity_lines": [ 38.013666, 35.421818, 29.040937, 25.654934 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 38.959999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 127.7, "trend": 22.772104, "fair_value": 8.561655, "relative_strength": 60.334882, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.85269, "energy": 66.747469, "activity_lines": [ 38.667332, 36.578363, 30.420692, 26.746755 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 34.549999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 127.7, "trend": 23.360317, "fair_value": 8.779485, "relative_strength": 42.373481, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.882724, "energy": 59.612368, "activity_lines": [ 37.319332, 36.597181, 31.275633, 27.506619 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 33.369999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 90.75, "trend": 23.835506, "fair_value": 8.989748, "relative_strength": 32.133789, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.417244, "energy": 47.037684, "activity_lines": [ 35.742666, 36.230999, 31.933789, 28.152405 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 34.255001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 88.75, "trend": 24.418138, "fair_value": 9.205577, "relative_strength": 35.103854, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.256463, "energy": 36.751868, "activity_lines": [ 34.939666, 36.017272, 32.602949, 28.824631 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.48, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 66.8, "trend": 24.826355, "fair_value": 9.390802, "relative_strength": 16.995951, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.438788, "energy": 27.696902, "activity_lines": [ 32.839333, 34.834, 32.736883, 29.151203 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.68, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 66.8, "trend": 25.247313, "fair_value": 9.577164, "relative_strength": 14.813665, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.693519, "energy": 28.25079, "activity_lines": [ 31.358333, 33.764727, 32.827121, 29.464341 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.66, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 56.65, "trend": 25.578825, "fair_value": 9.75073, "relative_strength": 5.863052, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.43179, "energy": 19.103947, "activity_lines": [ 29.822667, 32.351909, 32.655295, 29.619998 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.504999, "volume": 13, "typical_volume": 57.3, "trend": 26.015255, "fair_value": 9.942657, "relative_strength": 12.203145, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.172306, "energy": 22.805169, "activity_lines": [ 29.694666, 31.626545, 32.690309, 29.937816 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }