{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7090c57f-c3f8-48f0-bd1e-dbc52f737a95", "symbol": "HSRID", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy \u20ac High Yield SRI Fossil Free", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.806, "architecture_energy": 32.302, "architecture_maturity": 69.498, "architecture_confidence": 76.135, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.82, "rotation_up": 32.09, "upward_expansion": 65.52, "deceleration": 88.32, "rotation_down": 27.53, "downward_expansion": 17.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.092733, 9.099909, 9.072511, 9.048177 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.088, "trend_reference": 9.031758, "distance_from_trend": 0.006227, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.523949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.066173, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.512479, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.003704, "excess_performance": -0.167188, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006227, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004169, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.066173, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003508, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135125, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018444, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003704, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.127124, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1142, "relative_activity": 0.381595, "balance": 3.127124, "dry_up": 0.26314, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004224, "annualized_volatility": 0.035507, "from_high_reference": -0.006884, "from_low_reference": 0.028835 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.031758, "fair_value_reference": 8.523949, "structural_low": 8.833295, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.003156, "positive_rate": 0.621622, "directional_follow_through": 0.621622, "median_excess_return": -0.002859, "regime_survival": 0.837838, "best_return": 0.038457, "worst_return": -0.023364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.01389, "positive_rate": 0.923077, "directional_follow_through": 0.923077, "median_excess_return": -0.062803, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.048267, "worst_return": -0.006015, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.024166, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.079011, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.07513, "worst_return": 0.003041, "sufficient": 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"relative_strength": -12.58785, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.665615, "energy": 94.581462, "activity_lines": [ 9.1224, 9.091636, 9.044417, 9.031419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.113, "volume": 50, "typical_volume": 3114.2, "trend": 9.025215, "fair_value": 8.494457, "relative_strength": -11.360843, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.996336, "energy": 87.647761, "activity_lines": [ 9.125, 9.100236, 9.053936, 9.037365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.082, "volume": 1958, "typical_volume": 3209.85, "trend": 9.028569, "fair_value": 8.504352, "relative_strength": -11.178167, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.187796, "energy": 78.541856, "activity_lines": [ 9.1138, 9.100709, 9.060362, 9.041029 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.082, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3205.45, "trend": 9.030641, "fair_value": 8.514137, "relative_strength": -11.39928, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.865197, "energy": 52.18662, "activity_lines": [ 9.1012, 9.100509, 9.066587, 9.044476 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.088, "volume": 1142, "typical_volume": 2992.7, "trend": 9.031758, "fair_value": 8.523949, "relative_strength": -13.512479, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.80582, "energy": 32.301559, "activity_lines": [ 9.092733, 9.099909, 9.072511, 9.048177 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }