{ "ticker": { "uuid": "70935413-dfab-413c-b01c-538a0c9e1661", "symbol": "JAKK", "name": "JAKKS Pacific Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.983, "architecture_energy": 70.608, "architecture_maturity": 49.101, "architecture_confidence": 84.214, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.83, "rotation_up": 74.05, "upward_expansion": 90.53, "deceleration": 43.51, "rotation_down": 11.15, "downward_expansion": 14.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.210667, 24.384909, 23.453561, 22.678614 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 25.63, "trend_reference": 21.560228, "distance_from_trend": 0.188763, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.478141, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.193306, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 15.07078, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.448425, "excess_performance": 0.260972, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.188763, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.128606, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.193306, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106092, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.150708, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120546, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.448425, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.647814, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 602004, "relative_activity": 1.804115, "balance": 1.647814, "dry_up": 1.796132, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074609, "annualized_volatility": 0.473818, "from_high_reference": -0.05843, "from_low_reference": 0.790475 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.560228, "fair_value_reference": 21.478141, "structural_low": 16.766333, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.000901, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.029988, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.232332, "worst_return": -0.216662, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.144526, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.193962, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.063203, "worst_return": -0.412725, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.060741, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.099405, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.042626, "worst_return": -0.380174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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3.124122, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.983338, "energy": 40.821895, "activity_lines": [ 23.060667, 22.674334, 22.243768, 21.56626 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.23, "volume": 432989, "typical_volume": 310598.85, "trend": 20.710355, "fair_value": 21.331452, "relative_strength": 14.598597, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.803452, "energy": 55.543139, "activity_lines": [ 23.489333, 22.999, 22.484429, 21.809447 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.5, "volume": 642396, "typical_volume": 308764.7, "trend": 20.980527, "fair_value": 21.377757, "relative_strength": 17.480651, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.348123, "energy": 45.047573, "activity_lines": [ 23.892667, 23.349669, 22.738355, 22.053941 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.33, "volume": 719971, "typical_volume": 325193.0, "trend": 21.297035, "fair_value": 21.42775, "relative_strength": 24.874229, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.149924, "energy": 67.109143, "activity_lines": [ 24.749333, 23.970909, 23.145578, 22.399068 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.63, "volume": 602004, "typical_volume": 333683.8, "trend": 21.560228, "fair_value": 21.478141, "relative_strength": 15.07078, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.982658, "energy": 70.608214, "activity_lines": [ 25.210667, 24.384909, 23.453561, 22.678614 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }