{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7094cdc2-7c19-49e8-b509-3e865722989c", "symbol": "603729", "name": "Shanghai LongYun Cultural Creation & Technology Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.305, "architecture_energy": 64.283, "architecture_maturity": 79.156, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.04, "rotation_up": 28.27, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 59.49, "rotation_down": 52.59, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.605333, 10.822727, 12.010333, 13.27671 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.1, "trend_reference": 14.835333, "distance_from_trend": -0.251786, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.883201, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.342542, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.164033, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.378151, "excess_performance": -0.334947, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.251786, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113973, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.342542, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175266, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.29164, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060495, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.378151, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.170022, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7516451, "relative_activity": 0.755899, "balance": 0.170022, "dry_up": 0.676115, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088427, "annualized_volatility": 0.370967, "from_high_reference": -0.532828, "from_low_reference": 0.205212 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.835333, "fair_value_reference": 16.883201, "structural_low": 9.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.014625, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.034804, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.255068, "worst_return": -0.183986, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.149345, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.092468, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.25177, "worst_return": -0.278251, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.018107, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.112947, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.195633, "worst_return": -0.320075, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"relative_strength": -36.562945, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.825618, "energy": 71.324285, "activity_lines": [ 10.526667, 11.077455, 12.580762, 13.830731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.5, "volume": 5827683, "typical_volume": 10373662.15, "trend": 15.001667, "fair_value": 16.913206, "relative_strength": -31.814351, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.956215, "energy": 65.491077, "activity_lines": [ 10.461333, 10.867818, 12.249238, 13.52843 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.1, "volume": 7516451, "typical_volume": 9943727.7, "trend": 14.835333, "fair_value": 16.883201, "relative_strength": -29.164033, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.305158, "energy": 64.282797, "activity_lines": [ 10.605333, 10.822727, 12.010333, 13.27671 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }