{ "ticker": { "uuid": "70a09dea-5ce1-402f-8e5f-e6133bc92385", "symbol": "ETC", "name": "Earth Tech Environment Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 95.181, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.699, "architecture_energy": 18.91, "architecture_maturity": 44.988, "architecture_confidence": 78.902, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.97, "rotation_up": 30.32, "upward_expansion": 52.66, "deceleration": 83.65, "rotation_down": 22.68, "downward_expansion": 19.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.708667, 0.710364, 0.711295, 0.691377 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.71, "trend_reference": 0.654172, "distance_from_trend": 0.085342, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.501699, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.527202, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.943512, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.403453, "excess_performance": 0.211128, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085342, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091838, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.527202, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035697, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.019435, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121453, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.403453, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.713341, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14019300, "relative_activity": 0.264828, "balance": 0.713341, "dry_up": 0.422822, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054171, "annualized_volatility": 0.285906, "from_high_reference": -0.089744, "from_low_reference": 0.429935 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.654172, "fair_value_reference": 1.501699, "structural_low": 0.505895, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.024493, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.001561, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.038044, "worst_return": -0.171569, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.139891, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.150477, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.059783, "worst_return": -0.22, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.201848, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.211626, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.108696, "worst_return": -0.295, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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-7.747608, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.787572, "energy": 24.124886, "activity_lines": [ 0.705333, 0.715636, 0.702115, 0.672602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.73, "volume": 38706900, "typical_volume": 58830150.0, "trend": 0.637217, "fair_value": 1.539756, "relative_strength": -2.505725, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.516182, "energy": 26.161701, "activity_lines": [ 0.712, 0.717273, 0.707059, 0.679029 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.71, "volume": 33586000, "typical_volume": 59106530.0, "trend": 0.642772, "fair_value": 1.526531, "relative_strength": -4.770485, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.877383, "energy": 21.476041, "activity_lines": [ 0.711333, 0.715273, 0.709432, 0.683725 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.7, "volume": 3220300, "typical_volume": 58230050.0, "trend": 0.648617, "fair_value": 1.513963, "relative_strength": -4.428861, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.111067, "energy": 19.324914, "activity_lines": [ 0.708, 0.711636, 0.710149, 0.687417 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.71, "volume": 14019300, "typical_volume": 52937415.0, "trend": 0.654172, "fair_value": 1.501699, "relative_strength": -1.943512, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.699238, "energy": 18.909881, "activity_lines": [ 0.708667, 0.710364, 0.711295, 0.691377 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }