{ "ticker": { "uuid": "70a37aec-1dfd-4b2e-8c8c-99467b4d32e7", "symbol": "INDV", "name": "Indivior PLC Ordinary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.614, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.032, "architecture_energy": 30.743, "architecture_maturity": 55.906, "architecture_confidence": 62.018, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.05, "rotation_up": 43.04, "upward_expansion": 67.36, "deceleration": 60.38, "rotation_down": 24.38, "downward_expansion": 15.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.819667, 39.910273, 38.725024, 37.223108 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 38.82, "trend_reference": 35.630667, "distance_from_trend": 0.089511, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.805635, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.865841, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.513279, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.129802, "excess_performance": -0.057652, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089511, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054214, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.865841, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.171621, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.045133, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.198264, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.129802, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.753926, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22477380, "relative_activity": 2.279374, "balance": 0.753926, "dry_up": 1.142987, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083338, "annualized_volatility": 0.325913, "from_high_reference": -0.093203, "from_low_reference": 0.778287 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.630667, "fair_value_reference": 20.805635, "structural_low": 27.68, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.042251, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.055565, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.422107, "worst_return": -0.253913, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.045178, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.022181, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.670986, "worst_return": -0.438923, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.001904, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.060013, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.768908, "worst_return": -0.613872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.145959, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.060104, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.770338, "worst_return": -0.528468, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.070009, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040032, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.194958, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.140387, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062771, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047071, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.283019, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.240741, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.37365, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.60387, "energy": 63.143429, "activity_lines": [ 39.719667, 38.783273, 36.634, 35.653613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 40.5, "volume": 8051643, "typical_volume": 11328482.55, "trend": 35.053833, "fair_value": 20.373542, "relative_strength": 12.617705, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.04907, "energy": 63.776862, "activity_lines": [ 40.151333, 39.174273, 37.164024, 36.015602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.54, "volume": 6828257, "typical_volume": 11090206.0, "trend": 35.2315, "fair_value": 20.478734, "relative_strength": 16.283143, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.533134, "energy": 61.420374, "activity_lines": [ 40.404, 39.520909, 37.666381, 36.369548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.525, "volume": 8573474, "typical_volume": 11037758.4, "trend": 35.375333, "fair_value": 20.592548, "relative_strength": 16.832913, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.372434, "energy": 44.504111, "activity_lines": [ 40.514333, 39.845909, 38.130071, 36.711065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.01, "volume": 7205827, "typical_volume": 9846082.3, "trend": 35.518, "fair_value": 20.706394, "relative_strength": 13.853526, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.216012, "energy": 42.252737, "activity_lines": [ 40.304667, 40.008818, 38.505405, 37.010075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.82, "volume": 22477380, "typical_volume": 9861205.7, "trend": 35.630667, "fair_value": 20.805635, "relative_strength": 4.513279, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.032417, "energy": 30.743048, "activity_lines": [ 39.819667, 39.910273, 38.725024, 37.223108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }