{ "ticker": { "uuid": "70a5d9c5-01f6-4032-bb4b-51f94da6c3cf", "symbol": "600230", "name": "Cangzhou Dahua Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.252, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.944, "architecture_energy": 50.783, "architecture_maturity": 70.927, "architecture_confidence": 62.171, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.9, "rotation_up": 26.87, "upward_expansion": 20.61, "deceleration": 66.86, "rotation_down": 48.82, "downward_expansion": 72.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.667123, 13.60393, 14.703287, 15.977644 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.88, "trend_reference": 17.313247, "distance_from_trend": -0.140543, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.721409, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.169682, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.464519, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.344493, "excess_performance": -0.30129, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.140543, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01546, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.169682, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.239881, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024645, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158419, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.344493, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.707502, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 101404216, "relative_activity": 1.70794, "balance": 0.707502, "dry_up": 1.432179, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086059, "annualized_volatility": 0.608356, "from_high_reference": -0.453744, "from_low_reference": 0.280551 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.313247, "fair_value_reference": 12.721409, "structural_low": 11.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.005628, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.005635, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.343688, "worst_return": -0.128769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.061105, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.008041, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.160733, "worst_return": -0.19222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.014541, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.034053, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.305314, "worst_return": -0.241404, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"down", "direction": -83.484039, "energy": 91.47174, "activity_lines": [ 13.116087, 13.79088, 15.494298, 16.670616 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.55, "volume": 88945834, "typical_volume": 63400929.9, "trend": 17.310247, "fair_value": 12.729367, "relative_strength": -15.312671, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.3735, "energy": 83.938101, "activity_lines": [ 12.827871, 13.438381, 15.06531, 16.362558 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.79, "volume": 87482680, "typical_volume": 61348391.9, "trend": 17.325914, "fair_value": 12.720254, "relative_strength": -7.196067, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.572046, "energy": 64.458903, "activity_lines": [ 13.069304, 13.398792, 14.814703, 16.135445 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.88, "volume": 101404216, "typical_volume": 59372248.8, "trend": 17.313247, "fair_value": 12.721409, "relative_strength": -2.464519, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.94426, "energy": 50.782834, "activity_lines": [ 13.667123, 13.60393, 14.703287, 15.977644 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }